PlanB is “upset” that 41% of its followers give 100,000 BTC gift tips that won’t happen

PlanB, the idea behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, has shown that it is “uncomfortable” with its famous price predictions due to the recent downtrend in the market.

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which has predicted the price of BTC with some accuracy for the past two years, was recently questioned by some of its followers in a Twitter poll.

The anonymous analyst polled his followers on June 21st to ask them what price they think BTC will hit by the end of the year. He used the results to compare it to a similar survey in March when market sentiment was strong.

Of the 124,595 respondents in the most recent poll, 41% believe BTC price will stay below $ 100,000 through the end of the year, which would invalidate the S2F model. That’s two and a half times higher than 16% in the previous survey that thought the laser-crazy crowd would be disappointed this year.

3 months make the difference!

41% now believe Bitcoin will be below $ 100,000 by 2021 (validation of the S2F model), compared to 16% in March (when BTC was $ 55,000). pic.twitter.com/S9PKR8FSnb

– PlanB (@ 100 trillion USD) June 22, 2021

PlanB, which originally released the price prediction in March 2019, pinned a note confirming that even it feels a little “uncomfortable” when BTC price deviates from the pattern. However, the analyst notes that this pattern was already maintained in March 2019, again in March 2020 when the pandemic caused a global market downturn, and again in March, September 2020.

Even for me, it’s always a little nervous when the price of Bitcoin is at the low end of the stock-to-flow pattern. Will it hold up (like March 2019 if I post S2F, or March 2020 Covid, or September 2020 with BTC at $ 10,000) and is this another buying opportunity? Or is S2F deactivated? pic.twitter.com/iIjTC2Ncy3

– PlanB (@ 100 trillion USD) June 23, 2021

Preston Pysh, Founder of the Investor Podcast Network, commented that it is difficult for a model to explain the torrent of bad news that accelerated the market downturn.

“You mean your model accounts for no more than 40% of the mining rigs that have been banned and forced to shut down and relocate to other parts of the world … and without prior notice from companies / interests about it. Extraordinary Large Face BTC Treasury Expenses / Retained Profits. “

The model is a proportional calculation based on the existing supply of bitcoins in relation to the amount in circulation. The scarcer an asset is due to a four-year halving cycle, the higher the price. PlanB’s model predicts an average price of USD 288,000 over the next three years.

Connected: $ 288K BTC price ‘still pending,’ says PlanB as Bloomberg backs Bitcoin halving

At press time, Bitcoin is up 2.9% in the last 24 hours and is trading at $ 34,450, according to CoinGecko. The asset is down 45% from its all-time high of $ 64,800 on April 14.