ETH: Similarities with the market structure of 2018 could herald this worst-case scenario

Market sentiment in August was largely bullish. In explicit, some belongings rebounded considerably and hit the ATH ranges once more. However, ETH is just not one of these belongings. Still, the price, which has held a consolidation vary of over $ 3,000 since early August, speaks volumes.

At the second, ETH is trading above the $ 3,500 mark. However, in the previous few days there have been some issues about the downtrend.

At the second the pattern seems to be a bit shaky in the quick time period. The article makes an attempt a worst-case evaluation for ETH based mostly on historic information.

Dead Cat Bounce on the Weekly Chart?

ETH / USD chart | Source: Tradingview

Fractal patterns are thought-about a vital half of technical evaluation and illustrate the repetition of actions which have occurred in the previous. Put merely, belongings have traditionally moved in a well-defined path.

Take the case of ETH, for instance. At the second, the weekly chart appears to be drawing parallels to the structure of 2018.

The weekly chart is at the moment displaying a robust Death Cat Bounce fractal. A useless cat bounce is a market situation the place the price briefly bounces again after a correction. After the uptrend, the market continued to fall, making new lows on the chart.

Currently there are various similarities between ETH in 2018 and 2021. In 2018, earlier than the price fell, it consolidated strongly for 3 weeks in a row. The same scenario is at the moment going down, with the ETH worth shifting sideways since August.

The decline in trading quantity in each durations is one other similarity. If price strikes south after corrections, a brand new low beneath $ 2,000 is feasible.

Burglary of the energetic ETH tackle?

Number of energetic addresses at ETH | Source: Glassnode

From an on-chain perspective, most belongings are missing in exercise and ETH is not any exception. After the excessive level in the rally, the quantity of energetic addresses in lots of charts fell sharply. Even recovering costs didn’t trigger the index to skyrocket.

This exhibits that the ongoing restoration relies on some buyers. While it’s nonetheless early to foretell a full bear market for ETH, there are various clear indicators.

If ETH rises above $ 3,400 in the subsequent few weeks, the fractal sample shall be damaged. Accordingly, it could set off ETH demand and set off an upward motion. Otherwise, ETH ought to work in accordance with the requirements set by the market in 2018.

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