The Market Places A 6% Probability On Russia Using Nuclear Weapons In 2023
Polymarket wrote that it considers the prediction market on the subject “a public good, intended to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century.”
Polymarket is not available to US-based traders. Earlier this year, the site was fined $1.4 million and ordered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to stop offering non-compliant markets for not registering with it. Polymarket then limited access to non-US users only.
Polymarket details that “this market will settle to ‘Yes’ if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device with a strike capability before December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No” or is generally accepted from the Russian Federation.
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