The Bitcoin market has seen some rapid crashes over the years. In fact, at this stage they become an inevitable tradition. The September 7 event ignited fear and panic in the minds of relatively new entrants.
This leads “weak hands” to sell their stocks. In contrast, market participants who have witnessed such a crash tend to buy more coins.
All markets have cycles and the Bitcoin market is no exception. After all 210,000 blocks have been mined roughly every four years, the cycle changes. This is essentially characterized by the Halve Event, which cuts the miner’s reward by 50%. So far, each phase of each cycle is important in itself.
So if we watch how the bull market has done in the previous cycles, we can get a rough idea of what will happen over that period.
Blocks of ATH in front of | The source: Twitter
In 2013, it took almost 287 days for bitcoin price to hit ATH. Similarly, it took the market around 289 days to achieve the same performance in 2017. For this year we have passed 250 days and are only a month away from entering the 280-day period. In general, there is not much time left.
However, given the number of blocks since previous highs, the Bitcoin market will have more time. The price peaked in 2013 with around 50,000 blocks and in 2017 with around 44,000 blocks.
As can be seen from the graph, block 48,000 currently appears to be pretty close to the potential high of this rally.
To date, over 40,000 blocks have been mined and an additional 8,000 blocks are needed to meet the block target. With a block time of 10 minutes, it can be said that the market is about 55 days from peak.
In addition, the cyclical price always ensures the integrity of the spiral by staying within the boundaries of the respective concentric circles. Therefore there is no deviation this time.
The dark blue dots in the graph below represent all-time highs. Strangely enough, so far they are all in the same quarter of the circle. Should history repeat itself this time, the market should see another high in the next few months.
Bitcoin’s spiral over time | The source: Twitter
Overall, the market recovered somewhat after the slump. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $ 44,826, which has fallen slightly over the past 24 hours.
Source: Tradingview
As Bitcoin magazine reported, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stressed in a recent tweet that whales have started sending bitcoins from other exchanges to derivatives exchanges. According to the executive, these large market participants are betting on new positions or filling margins.
Whenever this has happened in the past, the price of Bitcoin has increased over the long term after accumulating large amounts. In fact, Ki also argued that her positions appear to be long this time around too.
The return on the output given is a positive sign at the time of writing. SOPR is a measure of the profit / loss status of trading coins on a given day. This indicator has recovered from the decline and is considered profitable.
As can be seen from the graph, the SOPR of the short-term HODLers fell below 1 on September 7th, which means they were short participants.
Conversely, the long-term HODLer’s SOPR has now risen again and doesn’t even hit level 1. This is a pretty bullish setup.
The source: Glass knot
Looking at the current state of the above indicators and past developments, it is fair to say that this is not the right time for market participants to give up their stocks.
The market is only 2 months away from its peak. Therefore, the sale at this point brings HODLer more profit than it does now.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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