Can ETH increase by 40% by the end of September?

Rise, consolidation, deviation and consolidation are typical price movements on the ETH chart from August to today. The price of the largest altcoin has stayed below $ 3,500 for six consecutive days, and it’s noteworthy that the current phase of consolidation is pretty similar to that of mid-August.

However, it should also be noted that there is a huge difference. In mid-August, the ETH tended towards the lower end, but this time the price moved significantly more towards the upper end.

The previous correction took more than 2 weeks. Will the same thing happen at this time?

ETH / USDT | The source: TradingView

Positive retailer mood

To some extent, attitudes of market participants play an important role in reinforcing an ongoing trend. Overall, the mood among ETH options traders at the time of going to press seems to be quite positive.

There are currently 1,917 DBT contracts that are expected to see the ETH price reach $ 5,500 by the end of the year. These market players are fairly optimistic not only in the long run, but also in the short term. According to the Skews Chart, 1,731 contract holders expect ETH to be released on March 17.

Change open interest of the ETH option | The source: Crookedness

In the long or short term, the current market sentiment underscores the bullish tendency. The possibility of ETH exiting the USD 3,300 trading zone to hit even higher highs next week seems very likely at the moment.

However, it should also be noted that some traders currently have open put-sell contracts at the strike price of $ 2,800. Even so, the volume is not large enough to dwarf the call (call) aggregate and is unlikely to have a significant impact on price.

In addition, all of the Open Interest has recently shown signs of recovery. According to data from Skew, Deribit’s open interest on September 10 was around $ 4 million. However, at the time of writing, the numbers soared to over $ 5 billion, suggesting a return in interest rates. This essentially means that fewer contracts will be liquidated than new contracts will be added.

In other words, it can be confirmed that new money is flowing into the ETH market at this point. Open interest in prominent stock exchanges such as OKEx and bit.com has also increased in parallel.

Total ETH Options Open Interest | The source: Crookedness

Mood swings in the third quarter

Q3 has always been eventful for ETH in the course of its history. In 2015, 2018 and 2019, ETH’s quarterly ROI remained negative (-75%, -50% and -38% to be precise). However, the market gradually changes over time.

With the exception of one case (see below), negative returns decrease in every subsequent 3rd quarter. Last year it was even 60%. Just over 2 weeks to the end of the quarter and the current profit is 44%.

So if the bullish momentum continues and buying pressure increases in the coming days, a quarterly closing price 40% higher is possible.

ETH quarterly profit | The source: Crookedness

With previous precedents, the collective optimism of traders, and the gradual positive change in earnings over the course of the third quarter, the foundation is that ETH price will rise rapidly and hit a local high in the coming days.

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