Will boring September give way to Bitcoin’s October high?

Overall, the market has stagnated since September 7th. However, thanks to the Litecoin-Walmart FUD, the space saw some impressive action on September 13th.

Bitcoin price hasn’t changed much since the event. For the past week, it stayed at $ 43,000-47,000. However, according to the chart below, BTC managed to test both support and resistance targets in the same candle on September 13th.

BTC / USDT | The source: TradingView

Apparently the volatility in the market has disappeared. In order for volatility to increase, Bitcoin must finally break the current range of USD 46,900. Due to the insufficient pressure to buy, the likelihood of this at the time of going to press seems to be rather low.

Bitcoin 30 day volatility index | The source: Buy bitcoin worldwide

If Bitcoin price falls below $ 44,000, it increases the likelihood of a return to the $ 39,000 region. The current phase of monotony could be extended a little longer.

Consolidated Price Here?

With market conditions weakening, the fear is evident in the minds of market participants. At the time of writing, the fear and greed index at 30 proves the above statement.

Additionally, Bitcoin-related crowdfunding FUD has just hit all-time lows. According to Santiment’s algorithm, which measures the number of comments, the weighted psychosocial was never as low as it has been in more than 4 years.

Bitcoin Weighted Social Psychology | The source: mood

As a precedent, a severe negative mood often triggers an upswing after the “weak hand” is gone. Interestingly, according to the latest Glassnode data, newer coins are starting to leave the market.

Coins under 3 months hit an all-time low of 15.9% of circulating supply. Very small amounts of “young” coins often signal the end of a bear market. Given the current situation, it is safe to say that this “final phase” will last until the end of September.

In addition, the revitalized supply numbers show a similar trend. The higher the offer to revive, the more negative investor sentiment, while the low value reflects HODLer’s confidence.

Resuscitation delivery of coins 1 year or older | The source: Glass knot

According to the graph above, the revival supply of coins that are 1 year or older has dropped to a significant low. This is very similar to the pre-bull period of 2020. It will likely be a few more days before these levels are exactly reached, but until then, consolidation will remain mainstream. So far, September has always been a bad month for Bitcoin.

Investors are “immobile”

Bitcoin investors are still not concerned, despite the price drop of more than 50% in May, as a lot of BTC was trading during the correction and long-term owners (investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 5 months) are not afraid of volatility on data from Glassnode .

The relative supply of LTH and STH tells us an interesting story about #Bitcoin:

1. About 16.8% of the $ BTC The supply has been exhausted in the past 5 months and returned to profit at the recent high of $ 52.8,000.

2. Long term owners now own 79.5% of the $ BTC Delivery, corresponds to October 2020. pic.twitter.com/lctIEtZVax

– Glass node (@glassnode) September 12, 2021

“The relative supply of LTH (long-term owners) and STH (short-term owners) draws an interesting Bitcoin story:

Over 16.8% of the BTC supply has been spent in the past 5 months and has been profitable with the most recent high of $ 52,800. LTH currently owns 79.5% of the BTC supply, which is as of October 2020.

This shows that many coins were trading in the $ 29,000 to $ 40,000 range during the recent consolidation. It also shows that BTC bought in Q1 through Q2 2021 is still HODLed and investors will not be moved by the + 50% decline. “

Glassnode also looked at the September 7 decline and found that investors who bought between $ 45,800 and $ 52,600 continue to hold HODL even though their positions are currently at a loss.

“During the September 7th sell-off, over 10.3% of Bitcoin supply went from unrealized gains to unrealized losses. This shows that around 1.94 million BTC has an on-chain cost base of $ 45,800 to $ 52,600. “

Profitable portion of the offer | The source: Glass knot

Renowned analyst Will Clemente is also watching BTC on-chain trends. According to Clemente, more than 90% of the existing supply remained inactive last month despite volatile prices.

“93% of Bitcoin’s supply remains unchanged for at least a month. This is an all time high. Just one more metric that shows how bullish the supply dynamics are. “

Bitcoin HODL wave | The source: Will Clemente

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