Bitfinex shorts collapse, bears invest after Bitcoin holds above $ 30,000

On June 25, Bitcoin’s short-term margin (BTC) on Bitfinex rose by $ 22,000, or $ 726 million. At the time, Cointelegraph reported that Bitfinex’s market share of the spot volume had increased significantly from 9 a.m. UTC in line with short-term demand.

The data confirms that one (or more) whales were actively shorting the market and betting on prices to decline. The average price of the trade is around $ 33,000, so any difference of $ 500 will result in a profit or loss of $ 11 million if a short position is closed.

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In the crypto world, traders tend to imagine that a particular unit or group requires some “inside” knowledge to build such a large position. However, as Cointelegraph has already shown, Bitfinex’s short margins have dropped by $ 65 million since early June, when Bitcoin hit $ 40,400 on June 16.

The important difference between margin trading and futures (permanent or quarterly) is that margin traders can use their own bitcoin to complete the trade. So instead of buying it on the market, you simply tell the exchange that your cash holdings should be used to cover a short position.

The same function is not available in the futures market because the contracts are synthetic. Depositing 10 bitcoins on the exchange does not exempt the short seller to actually redeem the $ 360,000 contract.

As a result, a short position could have been closed even if Bitfinex’s spot size didn’t fully account for the $ 900 million trading during that 8-hour period on June 25th.

Here, too, there were short margin closings when the spot volume on Bitfinex increased on June 27th.

The average price when a short-term trade of 22,000 bitcoin margin closed for 20 hours from the afternoon of June 26th was $ 32,500. This data shows a potential total profit of $ 11 million for trading. However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin peaked at $ 32,700 on June 26, leaving these margin short sellers facing a temporary loss of $ 15.4 million.

These traders may have closed their positions when Bitcoin tested the $ 31,500 support, but the price is showing resilience and this may have wiped out most of the profits in the trade. Regardless of what caused the short-term trades to close, it shows weakness in the bears or significant discomfort when bear positions are held below $ 35,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.