Bitcoin Spot ETF Increases Approval Rate 75% This Year: Bloomberg Analyst

Key Points:

• Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg have revised their Bitcoin ETF approval probability estimates, raising them to 75% for 2023.
• The SEC faces mounting pressure to justify any further denials of spot ETF applications.

In a groundbreaking turn of events, the United States is poised to witness an increased likelihood of its inaugural spot Bitcoin ETF gaining approval, following the recent legal decision in the Grayscale lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bloomberg’s seasoned analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, have reevaluated the prospects of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) entering the market.

Their analysis points to a significant uptick in the probability of ETF approval, now reaching 75% for the year 2023, surging further to an anticipated 95% by the close of 2024.

This adjustment comes in the wake of the August 29, 2023, court ruling, where Grayscale successfully obtained permission to reconfigure its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Balchunas had previously identified the chances of ETF approval at a lower rate, but the recent ruling has created a more optimistic landscape.

The analysts are confident that this positive momentum will avoid delays into 2024, potentially aligning with a substantial Bitcoin price surge ahead of the pivotal Bitcoin Halving event slated for the second quarter of the same year.

Evidently, the US SEC faces mounting pressure to justify any further rejections of spot ETF applications, especially with the imminent deadlines on the horizon.

Grayscale‘s recent triumph against the SEC, wherein a DC circuit court labeled the Commission’s reasons for denying the crypto company’s bid as “unlawful,” has marked a turning point in sentiment.

The SEC is presently bracing for an influx of spot Bitcoin ETF applications, spearheaded by industry-heavyweight BlackRock earlier in the summer.

With six applications facing a deadline this weekend, the standard review period for ETF proposals—240 days after federal register inclusion—looms large. It’s worth noting that the SEC holds the power to extend this timeframe for deeper evaluation.

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