Key Points:
According to a recent analysis by QCP Capital, Bitcoin prices may start near the lows in Q4 of this year as optimism for spot ETFs fades again, including next month’s Mt. Gox payout. However, the analysis predicts a sharp rebound in Q1 of 2024, with the likely approval of ETF in March and halving in April, and the likely slowdown in the US economy in Q2.
The analysis is based on QCP’s wave count, which suggests that a final push higher to end the B wave correction is likely in the following weeks. This is expected to realign crypto in a more positive light, just as the NVIDIA-led AI rally continues unabated, and other traditional proxies like Gold and Rates show some recent strength.
While QCP acknowledges that the upcoming known event calendar, including the Mt. Gox payout next month, will provide short-term bearish flow pressure, they believe that the likely ETF approval in March, coinciding with the upcoming halving sometime in April, and a sharp US economic slowdown finally looking likely in Q2, will result in a big new year Q1 rally.
QCP recommends buying a topside end Mar-24 option structure to leg into the bullish Q1-24 view. The payout on a 30/40k call structure is looking attractive, with a limited loss and a 450% payout at the top strike.
DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
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