Bitcoin: why is a $ 64,000 retest no longer a vain hope?

With Bitcoin price hovering above $ 50,000 again, the question remains whether the upward momentum will eventually allow the largest cryptocurrency to retest ATH? In terms of support levels, Bitcoin has an instant strength of $ 47,200, which is the Fibonacci range of 0.236.

On the other hand, a strong trend is forming on the exchanges which will reduce the pressure to sell and increase the upside potential of Bitcoin. This trend has also occurred before.

This article analyzes whether it has a similar bullish effect on Bitcoin.

Stacking stablecoins, is it time bitcoin hit full speed?

Reserve stablecoins on all exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

With the stablecoin reserves, it should be noted that these observations may not be entirely accurate. Especially since it is often associated with short-term price manipulation.

However, over the past year, the role of stablecoins has become more apparent, and there is a direct link between foreign exchange reserves – the upward movement of BTC. Hence, it can be argued that Bitcoin’s price rebounded sharply during the consolidation of stablecoin reserves.

Reserve USDC on all exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

USDC is currently the most obvious example in 2021.

Whenever the USDC reserves hit a high on all exchanges, the Bitcoin price rises on the chart and the exchange reserves decrease as a potential investment reason.

At the time of writing, USDC reserves remain with ATH. This means buyers may be waiting for bullish confirmation. That confirmation will be that Bitcoin will again top $ 50,000.

Miners are less likely to increase pressure to sell

Bergmann location index | Source: CryptoQuant

However, one of the strongest signals likely is that right now, miners are less and less likely to sell.

follow data, the Miners Position Index (MPI) is below 0 at the time of going to press. This underscores the insignificant selling pressure of miners (MPI above 2 indicates increasing selling pressure).

Total Miner’s Revenue from Block Rewards | Source: Glassnode

One of the possible reasons for the miners’ reluctance to sell is the block rewards and subsidies that have been paid to them over the past few days. follow Glass knot, after halving in 2020, Miner Revenue (USD) increased 630% as the block reward dropped to 6.25 BTC / block.

Total revenue paid per day in September 2021 averaged nearly $ 40 million per day. Those numbers won’t go down unless Bitcoin returns to the $ 20,000-25,000 range. So unless buyers dump abnormally, the miners seem to have no intention of selling.

With stablecoin supply waiting on the sidelines, the above indicators could peak in the next few weeks and become the necessary bullish confirmation. Accordingly, the $ 64,000 retest chance will improve over the next few days.

Bitcoin NUPL atc 0.5, how much bet

Unrealized net profit / loss | Source: Glassnode

Net Unrealized Profit / Loss (NUPL) tracks the profitability of Bitcoin investors and is currently reaching an interesting milestone. According to data from Glass knot, NUPL is at 0.5 regardless of bullish signs. This shows that the unrealized profit in the coin supply is 50% of the market capitalization (roughly $ 450 billion in unrealized profits). However, if the NUPL starts to decline further from here then the profitability of the coin supply will decrease.

Based on historical data, the NUPL acted as a strong support at 0.5 and since then Bitcoin has continuously hit new ATHs. Good examples include 2013 and 2017 – the two biggest rallies before 2021. However, there have also been times when the index fell further below 0.5, particularly in 2019 when prices fell 30% towards the end of the year.

While this on-chain data can provide some worthwhile predictions, it’s important to note that market dynamics have changed several times since July 2019. Another important development in recent weeks is the sharp drop in spending volume since January 2021.

Bitcoin Issuing Volume Age Range | Source: Glassnode

At the time of writing, the volume dominance of the old coin has dropped to a multi-year low of 2%. For comparison, the indicator is 4% ahead of the bull run in 2020. With long-term owners showing more confidence at the time of writing, the volatile volume could largely be due to short-term traders taking profits while new buyers absorb.

However, it is also important to keep in mind that the organization has not joined since Q4 / 2020 to Q1 / 2021. So the trigger points for a solid bullish confirmation are not yet fully warranted.

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