Price is still the same, but market sentiment is better

The mood in the BTC market improved

Bitcoin fell again to $ 30,150 last week and then rebounded. Previously, BTC broke the $ 30,000 mark to $ 28,000 but quickly bounced back. The two times in terms of price levels show huge differences in investor sentiment.

When BTC dropped to $ 28,000 and quickly bounced back above $ 30,000, it panicked investors. Many people fear that if BTC exceeds $ 30,000, it could go back to $ 20,000 or less.

So far, BTC has held in the $ 30,000 to $ 40,000 range for more than a month, which makes investors more confident. At the same time, the USD 30,000 price mark is believed to be a good area of ​​support for the price of BTC.

An investor Jim Cramer previously announced that it had sold most of its BTC. Now that BTC is holding over $ 30,000, he says he has more faith in BTC. Now, however, he will not buy BTC, but ETH, because this coin is more attractive to him.

In the past few weeks, when China imposed a strong ban on Bitcoin mining, the mining speed has slowed. Although the miners will gradually withdraw from China, it will be some time before they can resume operations.

If the mining speed of BTC slows down, but the mining difficulty has a delay in adjusting, the amount of BTC that has been mined in the past few weeks will also decrease. According to a June 27 article by Trustnodes, only half of the usual 144 Bitcoin blocks were mined per day in the same 24 hours. That is, the number of Bitcoin blocks mined has decreased from 144 to 77 blocks, which means that the number of BTC born has also decreased by more than 50%.

Due to the average mechanism of around 2 weeks, the mining difficulty will adjust to the mining speed and vice versa. The number of mined BTC will decrease in the short term and will be adjusted if the mining difficulty adjusts.

On-chain situation

While the price of BTC has fluctuated over the past week, the information in the chain has some notable points.

relationship Funding rates (overnight) the margin, option after falling to negative level and back to positive level. This number shows that the number of long orders is greater than short

Next, Amount of BTC deposited on exchanges Recently, it has been shown that the amount of BTC withdrawn from the exchange is higher than the amount deposited. On June 14th in particular, there was a major pullback from the exchange to 37,947 BTC.

Investors who looked at this information said the selling power came mostly from retail investors who recently bought, were afraid when the price fell, so they sold. Purchasing power came from investors and organizations.

index Bitcoin net realized profit / loss shows that the recent sharp decline in Bitcoin caused many individual investors to sell the hardest and cut losses over the past 1 year. The blue line shows BTC in profit and loss, the red line shows BTC in loss.

Bitcoin’s long sideways movement and sharp drop past the $ 30,000 mark was really a drop that panicked and left the market for many investors, especially new investors. Many people believe that the number of people who are weak and want to sell BTC is not much right now

over CDD index from BTC reflects a large amount of recently purchased BTC or bitcoins that have been in storage for many years suddenly move, this indicator is at a low level. It is possible that the CDD is low because BTC was recently moved to sell by individual investors.

And the Grayscale Premium Index is still at a low level. That said, the value of Grayscale’s GBTC stake is trading below the price of the BTC stored.

Some other information:

• Manager Scott Minerd an investment company Guggenheim, shared that he believes the long-term BTC price can reach $ 600,000 and the BTC market cap is in line with the gold market. In the short term, the price of BTC could drop to $ 20,000 and even $ 15,000.

• Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone said the fact that China bans miners in that country from mining BTC, causing them to move to other countries later, will regret China. China will lose tax breaks, jobs, and other economic benefits from the BTC mining industry, which could run into trillions of dollars. At the same time, it also helps that mining associations are no longer concentrated in China.

• Statistics of the major banks in the world now have many banks accepting to offer BTC-related services to their customers, such as: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs. Many other banks are also considering offering this service. The banks that do not agree to offer crypto-related services are mainly banks that have been involved in money laundering and are therefore more cautious.

• Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, argues that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies cannot and should not replace fiat currencies. He said that Bitcoin cannot print money like fiat money because BTC only has 21 million dong when the epidemic hits and the money supply needs to be increased. Although Yanis Varoufakis still likes blockchain, he’s not in favor of BTC replacing the local currency.