Bloomberg Analysts: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Now Have A 90% Chance Of Being Approved

Key Points:

• Bloomberg analysts have raised the likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETFs approval to 90% before January 10, 2023.
• Adjustments to the Spot BTC ETF S-1 form signify ongoing fine-tuning and have expanded the document by five pages.
• Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC has increased the prospects of the first Spot Bitcoin ETF entering the market.

Renowned Bloomberg senior analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have significantly raised the odds of spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining approval before January 10, pushing the probability to an impressive 90%.

Bloomberg Analysts Predict 90% Approval Chance for Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Notably, for Ark Invest, Balchunas and Seyffart, experts in the field of ETFs, examined adjustments made to the Spot BTC ETF S-1 filing. Their analysis revealed that the changes were not substantial but instead encompassed alterations in language, additional contextual information, and the inclusion of risk mitigation measures. These adjustments expanded the document by approximately five pages, indicating a substantial volume of feedback and fine-tuning in progress.

Similar revisions are expected for Invesco Galaxy as part of the ETF approval process. Balchunas and Seyffart have modified their expectations, increasing the likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETFs approval from an initial 75% projection, set late in August, to a remarkable 90% by the upcoming deadline of January 10.

Grayscale Legal Victory Boosts Odds of First Spot Bitcoin ETF

The 75% estimate was initially based on the legal victory achieved by Grayscale Investment Trust following a protracted legal battle with the SEC. This triumph occurred when the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled in favor of Grayscale, rebuking the SEC’s refusal to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF.

The absence of an appeal has heightened expectations for one of the first-ever Spot Bitcoin ETFs to enter the market. In light of the SEC’s decision not to challenge the court’s ruling, with the passage of time, discussions between Grayscale and the SEC are likely to commence.

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