A Bitcoin Sell-the-news Could Be Coming After The January 10 Deadline

Key Points:

• The crypto market awaits a verdict on spot Bitcoin ETFs, expected between January 8-10, anticipating either a surge or a potential Bitcoin sell-the-news event.
• Analyst Vetle Lunde predicts a 75% chance of profit-taking post-approval, fueled by traders’ exposure and significant derivatives premiums.
• BlackRock’s $10 million pledge on January 3 adds optimism.

Anticipations are building as the verdict on spot Bitcoin ETFs is announced. Analysts from K33 Research suggest that while many foresee Bitcoin reaching new yearly highs post-approval, there is a significant chance that the approval itself could trigger a Bitcoin sell-the-news event.

Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction For 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2030: Super Crypto Bull Run

Bitcoin Sell-the-News Fears: Analyst Warns of Potential Bitcoin Downturn Post-Approval

Senior analyst Vetle Lunde of K33 Research points out that traders are heavily exposed ahead of the decision, with derivatives showing substantial premiums following Bitcoin’s three months of continuous upward momentum. Lunde places a 75% probability on the Bitcoin sell-the-news scenario, citing the event as a prime opportunity for profit-taking among short-term market participants.

Despite recent discussions and updated S-1 prospectuses suggesting imminent approval, Lunde maintains a 20% chance of approval, countered by a 5% chance of outright denial. The market seems to be embracing the “buy the rumor, sell the news” strategy, where traders open positions based on rumors only to close them when the anticipated news breaks.

Applicants for spot Bitcoin ETFs have engaged in extensive talks with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), hosting approximately 32 meetings this month to discuss modifications to their filings. The crypto community is optimistic, with a 90% likelihood perceived by analysts for the ETFs to gain approval between January 8-10.

Even BlackRock, a major player in the asset management sector, has pledged to seed the product with $10 million on January 3, adding to the anticipation surrounding this pivotal decision.