3 Scenarios Traders Watch While Bitcoin Closes Monthly Close

Bitcoin fluctuated a lot in June, which confused traders and was looking for the latest technical indicator or breaking news that could give some clues as to how the price will perform.

As June draws to a close, traders focus on BTC’s monthly closing price to determine whether the future outlook favors bulls or bears.

diagram BTC / USD | Source: TradingView

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is 47 percent away from its all-time high of $ 64,873, and analysts have mixed views on whether upside momentum will return in the short term. Here are three scenarios for analysts to watch as the market prepares to enter July.

Bitcoin has to defend $ 34,500 in support

A crypto survey on Twitter shows that many chart followers have identified $ 34,500 as an important price level that needs to be defended in order to establish a bullish case for Bitcoin in the future.

According to trader Rekt Capital, a close near this level would put the market on a trajectory similar to the bitcoin price pattern during the 2013 bull market, including a mid-cycle correction before the price hit an all-time high (ATH) at the end of the year.

“So far, the current phase of the 2021 cycle is very similar to the mid-cycle correction of 2013. A monthly candle close above ~ $ 34,500 USD means BTC will continue to repeat the trends in the mid-cycle historical period,” he said speak.

From this bullish perspective, Bitcoin will soon resume the uptrend that began in late 2020 and should theoretically lead to a new ATH in late 2021 or early 2022 that is expected to exceed $ 100,000. la follows the Bitcoin (S2F) stock-to-flow model.

paradigm Stock-to-flow bitcoin | Source: Search Intobitcoin

Despite widespread adoption and belief in the S2F model, Bitcoin’s recent price action has even made Plan B, the father of this popular model, feel “unsafe” that BTC may fall.

“Even for me, there is always a bit of uncertainty when the Bitcoin price is at the lower end of the stock-to-flow model. Will the price hold up (like March 2019 if I post S2F, or March 2020 Covid, or September 2020 with BTC at $ 10,000) and is this another buying opportunity? Or is S2F deactivated? ”.

Source: Plan B

Signs of a bearish breakdown

As the bulls searched for signs of confirmation of an upward move, price action attracted anonymous analyst John Wick on June 30th. According to the analyst, there is a bearish toping pattern in the most recent BTC chart.

“Just when we got off to a good start, the top signal was generated and confirmed. There was a bearish RSI + strong bearish confluence. Let’s see if we can hold the $ 34,000 support? Otherwise the price still fluctuates in the range. $ 36,000 and $ 41,000 are resistance. “

Source: John Wick

Bitcoin must now hold the support level of $ 34,000, according to Wick. Otherwise, the market could trade sideways, tied to a range for a long time, instead of going up again.

The bearish sentiment is also underscored by Nunya Bizniz, who points out that BTC must close above $ 37,400 to avoid falling for three consecutive months. Historically, the drop in prices for three consecutive months indicates further losses.

BTC monthly:

Month ends tomorrow.

A closing price above $ 37.4,000 would avoid 3 consecutive months of decline.

Three downward months marked another downside.

What happens?

Note: Green boxes = Bounce sorting term pic.twitter.com/aj1IWuGXXe

– Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) June 29, 2021

“A month close above $ 37,400 will avoid 3 consecutive months of declines. Three months of decline marked many downward moves. Note: Green box = bullish in the short term ”.

Increased psychological signs

While the debate about the future is hot or negative, there are a number of indicators that suggest that sentiment is likely to rise amid the noise.

Grayscale Bitcoin Spread | Source: Bitcoin archive

Twitter user Bitcoin Archive has pointed to the Bitcoin Grayscale arbitrage rates approaching zero and the new buying activity of the Purpose Bitcoin ETF as evidence that sentiment is rising.

As reported by Bitcoin Magazine, on-chain analyst William Clemente III also published the following chart highlighting the fact that long-term BTC holders have been piling up since late May after Bitcoin price fell below $ 29,000.

“Bitcoin is cheap and long term BTC owners know it. They have added 741,363 BTC to their holdings since the first drop in late May. “

Bitcoin offer held by long-term owners | Source: Glass knot

To simply explain the main levels to watch out for, John Bollinger, technical analyst and creator of Bollinger Bands, said that $ 41,000 and $ 31,000 are important “reasonable levels” to follow, and also identifies the zone in between $ 35,000 and $ 36,000 as key support levels.

You can see the BTC price here.

Disclaimer of liability: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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