Potential US Election Candidates 2024: Who Will Win?
The election of the President and Vice President of the United States is a unique process that differs from many other republics around the world. Unlike countries that utilize direct national popular votes to elect their leaders, the United States employs an indirect election system through the Electoral College.
In this system, citizens of the United States who are registered to vote in one of the fifty states or in Washington, D.C., do not directly cast their ballots for the president and vice president. Instead, they vote for members of the Electoral College, who then cast direct votes, known as electoral votes, for these offices.
To win the presidency, a US election candidate must secure an absolute majority of electoral votes, which currently stands at 270 out of 538, as determined by the Twenty-Third Amendment, granting voting rights to citizens of Washington, D.C. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority, the responsibility falls to the House of Representatives to elect the president. Similarly, if no candidate secures an absolute majority for vice president, the Senate elects the vice president.
The Electoral College system is enshrined in the U.S. Constitution by Article II, Section 1, Clauses 2 and 4, as well as the Twelfth Amendment, which replaced Clause 3 in 1804. Each state is allocated a number of electoral votes equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress, while Washington, D.C., is granted three electoral votes, as per the Twenty-third Amendment.
The method for selecting electors is determined by each state legislature, not directly by the federal government, under Clause 2. Although initially, many state legislatures appointed electors directly, they have gradually transitioned to using the popular vote to choose electors over time. Additionally, beyond the guidelines set forth in the U.S. Constitution, most aspects of administering the popular vote, including voter eligibility and registration requirements, are regulated by state law rather than federal law.
The stage is set for the 2024 United States presidential election, the 60th quadrennial presidential race, slated for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Americans will cast their votes to decide the nation’s next president and vice president, who will serve a four-year term.
The winner of this US election will be sworn into office on January 20, 2025, alongside various other elections, including those for the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial positions, and state legislatures.
A myriad of critical issues are expected to dominate the campaign trail, including abortion, immigration, healthcare, education, the economy, foreign policy, border security, LGBT rights, climate change, and the preservation of democracy. These topics will likely shape the discourse and influence voters’ decisions as they head to the polls in November.
In what promises to be a historic showdown, incumbent President Joe Biden, representing the Democratic Party, is seeking re-election. His Republican challenger is none other than his predecessor, Donald Trump, who aims for a second term, making this the first presidential rematch since 1956. Should Trump emerge victorious, he will join Grover Cleveland as the only president to serve non-consecutive terms.
As of March 12, Biden and Trump have secured their positions as the presumptive nominees for their respective parties, having amassed the majority of delegates. However, their nominations await confirmation at the upcoming party conventions.
Adding an intriguing dynamic to the race is the emergence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent and has gained significant traction as the highest-polling third-party presidential candidate since Ross Perot in the 1992 and 1996 US elections.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden secured victory over Donald Trump by winning the popular vote by a margin of 4.5 percentage points, mirroring the same number of Electoral College votes Trump had clinched four years earlier — 306. However, analysts speculate that if this trend persists into 2024, Biden may need to widen his lead in the popular vote to at least 5 points in order to secure the 270-plus Electoral College votes necessary for victory.
Yet, the predictability of a two-election trend remains uncertain, and there’s a contrasting perspective regarding the potential outcomes of the 2024 US election. Some argue that the Republican Party’s Electoral College advantage might not be as significant, given Trump’s increasing support among Black and Latino voters.
Notably, Trump has made inroads in traditionally Democratic states such as California and New York, although these states are unlikely to sway the overall outcome of the presidential race. Nonetheless, even marginal improvements in Trump’s performance in these populous, blue states could narrow the gap between the national popular vote and the decisive state vote.
President Joe Biden, 81, has officially declared his intention to seek a second term in office, marking a historic bid for re-election. Making the announcement in a video message on April 25, 2023, Biden affirmed his commitment to continuing his leadership of the United States.
Speculation had arisen that Biden might step aside to allow a younger candidate to lead the Democratic Party into the future. However, the Democratic Party’s stronger-than-anticipated performance in the 2022 midterms provided a boost of confidence to Biden’s camp. The results of the midterms seemingly revitalized Biden’s determination, leading to his announcement of a bid for the 2024 presidential race.
As the current president, Biden is the oldest US election candidate ever to serve in the role. Despite initial speculation fueled by lackluster approval ratings, Biden’s decision to pursue re-election solidifies his position within the Democratic Party.
Biden has advocated for a range of domestic policies aimed at addressing issues such as healthcare, climate change, education, and income inequality. He supports the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and has proposed expanding its provisions to increase access to healthcare.
Additionally, Biden has proposed significant investments in clean energy and infrastructure as part of his plan to combat climate change. He also emphasizes the importance of improving educational opportunities and reducing student debt.
Biden has proposed various economic policies, including raising the federal minimum wage, increasing taxes on the wealthy, and implementing measures to support middle-class families. He has also emphasized the importance of revitalizing American manufacturing and promoting job growth through investments in infrastructure and innovation.
Biden has a long history of involvement in foreign affairs, having served as Vice President under President Barack Obama and as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He generally advocates for a multilateral approach to foreign policy, emphasizing diplomacy and cooperation with international allies. Biden has expressed support for NATO and other alliances, while also prioritizing efforts to address global challenges such as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and human rights abuses.
Biden has been a vocal supporter of LGBTQ+ rights, including marriage equality and protections against discrimination. He also supports women’s reproductive rights and has spoken out against efforts to restrict access to abortion. Furthermore, Biden has called for criminal justice reform, including measures to address systemic racism and promote police accountability.
Biden has proposed comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and measures to improve border security. He has criticized the Trump administration’s immigration policies, including the separation of families at the border, and has pledged to reverse many of these policies if elected.
Biden’s early political career includes his service on the New Castle County Council from 1970 to 1972. This marked his first foray into elected office before ascending to the U.S. Senate.
Biden served as a U.S. Senator representing Delaware for an impressive 36 years, from 1973 to 2009. During his tenure, he became known for his expertise in foreign policy, particularly in matters concerning arms control, terrorism, and NATO expansion. Biden’s legislative accomplishments include the Violence Against Women Act, the 1994 Crime Bill, and his work on various judicial and foreign relations committees.
Biden’s presidential aspires to lead him to run for the highest office in the United States multiple times. His first presidential bid was in 1987, followed by another attempt in 2007. While these campaigns did not result in victory, they emphasized Biden’s ambition and dedication to public service.
In 2008, Joe Biden was selected by then-Senator Barack Obama as his running mate in the presidential election. The Obama-Biden ticket won the election, and Biden served as Vice President of the United States from 2009 to 2017.
During his time as Vice President, Biden played a key role in shaping the administration’s domestic and foreign policies, including the Affordable Care Act and the economic recovery efforts after the 2008 financial crisis.
In his historic election as the 46th President of the United States on November 3, 2020, alongside his Vice Presidential running mate, Kamala Harris, Biden took the oath of office on January 20, 2021.
In a remarkable display of voter confidence, Biden secured an impressive 96.2% of the vote in a write-in campaign in New Hampshire. Moreover, Biden’s electoral success extended to South Carolina, where he easily emerged victorious in the first Democratic contest.
Throughout the Democratic primaries, Biden consistently demonstrated his ability to win over the party’s base, securing key victories and earning the trust and endorsement of Democratic voters nationwide.
However, despite his successes, Biden faced challenges and fluctuations in support, particularly concerning his stance on international issues such as the conflict in Gaza. While he ultimately emerged victorious, Biden experienced some erosion in support as a result of his handling of the Gaza situation.
Former President Donald Trump, aged 77, has made a significant move toward the 2024 presidential election by officially filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, to declare himself a candidate once again.
This announcement comes amidst a backdrop of political turbulence, with Trump being the only U.S. president to undergo two separate impeachment trials. The first trial was in response to his alleged role in inciting the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol in January 2021, an event triggered by his refusal to accept the results of the 2020 US election, in which he was defeated by President Joe Biden.
Making the declaration at Mar-a-Lago, his Palm Beach, Florida estate, Mr. Trump chose a location laden with recent controversy. Merely three months prior, FBI agents had conducted a search at Mar-a-Lago in pursuit of stolen classified documents. Nevertheless, Trump is undeterred, banking on a historic comeback to the White House, a feat not achieved since Grover Cleveland’s return in 1885.
Trump has been known for his hardline stance on immigration, advocating for stricter border controls, including the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. He has also pushed for policies to reduce both legal and illegal immigration, including the implementation of travel bans targeting certain countries.
Trump has taken a protectionist approach to trade, prioritizing American interests and advocating for renegotiating or withdrawing from international trade agreements that he deemed unfavorable to the United States.
Trump has often touted his administration’s economic policies as successful, including tax cuts for individuals and businesses, deregulation, and efforts to promote American manufacturing. He has emphasized job creation and economic growth as central goals of his presidency.
Trump has repeatedly sought to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), commonly known as Obamacare. While efforts to fully repeal the ACA were unsuccessful, his administration has taken steps to weaken certain provisions of the law and expand alternatives such as association health plans and short-term health insurance.
Trump’s foreign policy approach has been characterized by a combination of isolationist tendencies and assertive diplomacy. He has pursued a policy of “America First,” prioritizing U.S. interests in international relations and adopting a more skeptical view of multilateral institutions and alliances.
Trump has also pursued high-profile negotiations with North Korea and pursued a policy of maximum pressure on Iran.
Trump has taken conservative stances on various social issues, including abortion rights and LGBTQ+ rights. He has appointed conservative judges to the federal judiciary, including three Supreme Court justices, with the aim of shifting the balance of the courts in a more conservative direction.
Before embarking on his political career, Donald Trump amassed a wealth of experience in business and entertainment. After graduating, he joined his family’s company, Elizabeth Trump & Son, in 1971, eventually assuming control and renaming it the Trump Organization. Over the years, he engaged in various real estate and business ventures, promoting his acumen for deal-making and entrepreneurship.
Trump ventured into the realm of entertainment, notably hosting and serving as executive producer of the reality television show “The Apprentice” on NBC from 2004 to 2015. His role on the show not only bolstered his public profile but also cultivated an image of despondency and success that will later resonate with his political base.
Trump’s political aspirations emerged as early as 1999 when he ran as a Reform Party presidential candidate. However, he withdrew from the race in February 2000. Throughout the years, Trump displayed a degree of political fluidity, changing his official party affiliation multiple times between 1987 and 2012, ultimately registering as a Republican in April 2012.
It was in 2015 that Trump made his most consequential political move yet, declaring his candidacy for the 2016 presidential election on June 16. Despite skepticism from many political observers, Trump’s unorthodox campaign resonated with a segment of the American electorate, leading to his official nomination as the Republican Party candidate on July 19, 2016, at the Republican National Convention.
The upturn of Trump’s political journey came on November 8, 2016, when he defied expectations and was elected as the 45th president of the United States. His inauguration took place on January 20, 2017, marking the beginning of a tumultuous and polarizing presidency that will leave a lasting impact on American politics and society.
After a series of pivotal wins across multiple states, former President Donald Trump emerged as a dominant force in the early stages of the Republican presidential primaries. Trump’s resounding victory in Iowa saw him clinch a significant 51% of the votes, solidifying his standing within the party.
Moving on to New Hampshire, Trump maintained his momentum, surpassing his closest rival, Nikki Haley, by a substantial 10-point margin.
The Nevada caucuses witnessed Trump’s triumph in what was deemed an effective one-horse race. Notably, Trump’s success extended beyond traditional Republican strongholds, as evidenced by his victory over Haley in her home state. Michigan, a key battleground, also fell in Trump’s favor, further bolstering his campaign’s momentum.
Super Tuesday proved to be a pivotal moment for Trump, as he swept to victory across numerous states, showcasing widespread support and solidifying his status as the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a 70-year-old lawyer known for his skepticism towards vaccines and ties to former President Donald Trump, officially filed his candidacy papers with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on April 5, 2023. This move places him as the second long-shot Democratic candidate to challenge President Biden following Marianne Williamson’s departure from the race on February 7.
Despite initially starting his campaign under the Democratic banner, Kennedy Jr. later switched to an independent status. His political journey has been marked by his connections to Trump, as evidenced in 2017 when the then-president-elect appointed him to oversee a panel aimed at reviewing vaccine safety and science.
Notably, Kennedy Jr. has consistently expressed skepticism regarding vaccines, a stance he maintained even throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Kennedy Jr. changed his party affiliation from Democratic to Independent in October.
Kennedy Jr. has been a vocal critic of vaccines, expressing skepticism about their safety and efficacy. He has raised concerns about the potential side effects of vaccines and has advocated for increased scrutiny of vaccine development and distribution processes.
Kennedy Jr. is a prominent environmental activist, advocating for policies to address climate change, protect natural habitats, and promote renewable energy sources. He has been involved in numerous environmental organizations and initiatives aimed at raising awareness about environmental issues and advocating for policy change.
Kennedy Jr. has been critical of the influence of corporate interests on government policy, particularly in industries such as pharmaceuticals and agriculture. He has called for greater transparency and accountability in government decision-making processes to mitigate the influence of powerful corporations.
Kennedy Jr. has shown an interest in alternative medicine practices and has been supportive of holistic approaches to healthcare. He has promoted the use of alternative therapies and treatments, often advocating for greater access to alternative medicine options within the healthcare system.
Kennedy Jr. has spoken out on issues related to civil rights and social justice, echoing his family’s legacy of advocacy for marginalized communities. He has supported initiatives aimed at promoting equality and justice, including efforts to address racial disparities in healthcare and criminal justice reform.
While not a traditional politician, Kennedy Jr. has been deeply engaged in political advocacy related to environmental policy. He has leveraged his platform and influence to push for legislation and policies aimed at environmental conservation, renewable energy development, and addressing climate change. His involvement in environmental activism has often intersected with political processes and decision-making at various levels of government.
Kennedy Jr. has been associated with the Democratic Party for much of his life, aligning with the party’s values and priorities on issues such as social justice, healthcare, and environmental protection. His decision to run for political office and engage in political activism has often been within the framework of the Democratic Party, although he has also pursued independent political paths at times.
Throughout his career, Kennedy Jr. has been appointed to various government advisory roles related to environmental policy and public health. He has served on commissions, task forces, and advisory boards tasked with advising elected officials and policymakers on matters ranging from clean water regulations to vaccine safety.
While not a prolific candidate for political office himself, Kennedy Jr. has been involved in supporting and advising political campaigns at the local, state, and national levels. His political endorsements and campaigning efforts have often focused on candidates who align with his values and policy priorities, particularly in the realms of environmental protection and social justice.
Third-party presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has emerged as one of the most well-regarded figures in national politics, according to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll. The poll indicates that 45% of Americans hold a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Kennedy Jr., while 34% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
These polling figures position Kennedy Jr. favorably among a cohort of 16 prominent political figures included in the survey, which encompasses the president, the vice president, the top four congressional leaders, and Republican presidential candidates. Notably, Kennedy Jr. shares the distinction of being viewed favorably by as many Americans as former President Donald Trump, who remains a polarizing figure in American politics.
Marianne Williamson, the self-help author and former spiritual adviser to television mogul Oprah Winfrey, has thrown her hat into the ring once again, announcing her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2024 race. This marks her return to the political arena after her participation in several Democratic primary debates during the 2020 US election cycle.
During her previous presidential run in 2020, Williamson gained attention for her unconventional approach, often making statements that were perceived as unusual. Notably, she pledged to make then-New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern the first head of government she would call as president. Additionally, she asserted her intention to win the election by “harnessing love for political purposes” against then-President Donald Trump.
However, despite her efforts, Williamson’s 2020 campaign faced challenges, leading to its conclusion on February 8 after she failed to garner enough support in New Hampshire and Nevada. Undeterred, she re-entered the race on February 28 following the Michigan primary, demonstrating her persistence and determination in pursuing her political ambitions.
Williamson has been a vocal proponent of a universal healthcare system in the United States. She supports the idea of Medicare for All, advocating for accessible and affordable healthcare coverage for all Americans. Williamson believes that healthcare is a fundamental human right and has emphasized the importance of addressing the disparities in healthcare access and outcomes.
Recognizing the urgency of the climate crisis, Williamson has called for bold action to combat climate change. She supports transitioning to renewable energy sources and reducing carbon emissions to mitigate the effects of climate change and protect the environment for future generations.
Williamson has emphasized the need for international cooperation and collective responsibility in addressing this global challenge.
Williamson has been a vocal advocate for criminal justice reform, calling for an end to mass incarceration and the implementation of policies aimed at addressing systemic issues within the criminal justice system. She supports measures such as police reform, ending the war on drugs, and investing in rehabilitation and reintegration programs for incarcerated individuals.
Addressing the growing gap between the wealthy elite and the rest of society, Williamson has spoken out against income inequality and economic injustice. She supports policies aimed at increasing taxes on the wealthy, raising the minimum wage, and implementing wealth redistribution measures to ensure economic opportunity and security for all Americans.
Williamson has emphasized the importance of education as a cornerstone of a thriving society. She supports increased funding for public education, expanding access to higher education, and addressing student loan debt. Williamson believes that investing in education is essential for empowering individuals and promoting social mobility.
While Williamson’s foreign policy stances have not been as extensively articulated as some of her domestic policies, she has expressed a commitment to diplomacy and peaceful conflict resolution. She has criticized militaristic approaches to international relations and advocated for diplomatic engagement and cooperation with other nations.
As the 2024 presidential campaign kicked off, a multitude of contenders emerged, navigating the looming presence of the two familiar US election candidates who squared off in 2020: President Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump.
The landscape crystallized on March 12, 2024, as Joe Biden, representing the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump, carrying the Republican banner, emerged as the presumptive nominees. Formalizing their status, the Democratic National Convention is slated for August 2024, while the Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 2024, where each party will officially nominate its presidential candidate.
However, despite the initial flurry of aspirants vying for the Republican nomination, many of Trump’s challengers withdrew from the race well before any votes were cast. Trump’s dominance was underscored by his resounding victories in nearly all but two contests, effectively diminishing the competition within the Republican ranks.
Similarly, on the Democratic front, while Joe Biden faces nominal opposition, his grip on the party’s nomination remains firm, with his challengers unable to significantly challenge his position.
As the presidential campaign gains momentum, the contours of the race are gradually taking shape, with Trump and Biden poised for a showdown, while third-party contenders inject an element of unpredictability into the electoral landscape. The stage is set for a closely watched contest that could shape the trajectory of American politics for years to come.
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