US Election Predictions: The Effects And Importance Of The New US President
The election of the President and Vice President of the United States is a unique process that differs from many other republics around the world. Unlike countries that utilize direct national popular votes to elect their leaders, the United States employs an indirect election system through the Electoral College.
In this system, citizens of the United States who are registered to vote in one of the fifty states or in Washington, D.C., do not directly cast their ballots for the president and vice president. Instead, they vote for members of the Electoral College, who then cast direct votes, known as electoral votes, for these offices.
To win the presidency, a US election candidate must secure an absolute majority of electoral votes, which currently stands at 270 out of 538, as determined by the Twenty-Third Amendment, granting voting rights to citizens of Washington, D.C. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority, the responsibility falls to the House of Representatives to elect the president. Similarly, if no candidate secures an absolute majority for vice president, the Senate elects the vice president.
The Electoral College system is enshrined in the U.S. Constitution by Article II, Section 1, Clauses 2 and 4, as well as the Twelfth Amendment, which replaced Clause 3 in 1804. Each state is allocated a number of electoral votes equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress, while Washington, D.C., is granted three electoral votes, as per the Twenty-third Amendment.
The method for selecting electors is determined by each state legislature, not directly by the federal government, under Clause 2. Although initially, many state legislatures appointed electors directly, they have gradually transitioned to using the popular vote to choose electors over time. Additionally, beyond the guidelines set forth in the U.S. Constitution, most aspects of administering the popular vote, including voter eligibility and registration requirements, are regulated by state law rather than federal law.
The stage is set for the 2024 United States presidential election, the 60th quadrennial presidential race, slated for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Americans will cast their votes to decide the nation’s next president and vice president, who will serve a four-year term.
The winner of this US election will be sworn into office on January 20, 2025, alongside various other elections, including those for the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial positions, and state legislatures.
A myriad of critical issues are expected to dominate the campaign trail, including abortion, immigration, healthcare, education, the economy, foreign policy, border security, LGBT rights, climate change, and the preservation of democracy. These topics will likely shape the discourse and influence voters’ decisions as they head to the polls in November.
In what promises to be a historic showdown, incumbent President Joe Biden, representing the Democratic Party, is seeking re-election. His Republican challenger is none other than his predecessor, Donald Trump, who aims for a second term, making this the first presidential rematch since 1956. Should Trump emerge victorious, he will join Grover Cleveland as the only president to serve non-consecutive terms.
As of March 12, Biden and Trump have secured their positions as the presumptive nominees for their respective parties, having amassed the majority of delegates. However, their nominations await confirmation at the upcoming party conventions.
Adding an intriguing dynamic to the race is the emergence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent and has gained significant traction as the highest-polling third-party presidential candidate since Ross Perot in the 1992 and 1996 US elections.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden secured victory over Donald Trump by winning the popular vote by a margin of 4.5 percentage points, mirroring the same number of Electoral College votes Trump had clinched four years earlier — 306. However, analysts speculate that if this trend persists into 2024, Biden may need to widen his lead in the popular vote to at least 5 points in order to secure the 270-plus Electoral College votes necessary for victory.
Yet, the predictability of a two-election trend remains uncertain, and there’s a contrasting perspective regarding the potential outcomes of the 2024 US election. Some argue that the Republican Party’s Electoral College advantage might not be as significant, given Trump’s increasing support among Black and Latino voters.
Notably, Trump has made inroads in traditionally Democratic states such as California and New York, although these states are unlikely to sway the overall outcome of the presidential race. Nonetheless, even marginal improvements in Trump’s performance in these
Under President Biden’s leadership, the post-Covid economic recovery appears to be on a steady trajectory. Despite initial concerns, unemployment rates are low, and the stock market continues to soar to unprecedented heights.
Polling data suggests a significant portion of the populace still leans towards Trump, driven by concerns over the cost of living and inflation. For Biden, navigating Republican threats to social security and Medicare emerges as a balancing act to assuage such worries. Conversely, Trump must tread carefully among his older voter base, downplaying potential risks to these entitlement programs even as they feature in Republican transition plans.
The American economy’s chronic underperformance over the past decades underscores wider challenges, including sluggish income and wealth growth for most households, as well as soaring inequality. Alarmingly, the U.S. now lags behind other high-income nations in life expectancy—a stark indicator of systemic issues.
President Biden faces a delicate balancing act in navigating foreign policy challenges, notably exemplified by the Israel-Gaza conflict. Striving to appease both the influential Israel lobby and segments of his own party, particularly the left and youth demographics sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, presents a formidable task.
Continued protests against Israeli actions underscore the imperative of maintaining cohesion within the Democratic base. Meanwhile, Republicans, unequivocally pro-Israel, face fewer internal divisions on this front.
Elsewhere, Biden’s administration maintains global support for Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia, albeit facing hurdles from Republicans seeking concessions on immigration and wavering commitments to Kyiv. Lingering fallout from the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal and potential crises like a Chinese incursion into Taiwan further complicate foreign policy considerations, ensuring intense scrutiny and criticism.
Efforts to address issues of equality and LGBTQ+ rights have emerged as focal points, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis championing hardline stances reflective of Trump-era politics. Despite his failed campaign, Republican rhetoric against “woke” ideology persists, resulting in anti-trans legislation, book bans, and restrictions on LGBTQ+ education.
Racially charged debates over immigration and crime underscore traditional fault lines, with Trump’s extremist rhetoric further polarizing discussions. However, signs of wavering Black and Hispanic support for Democrats hint at shifting dynamics.
The spectrum of threats to democracy, both foreign and domestic, looms large in the electoral landscape. Biden positions himself as a defender of democratic principles abroad while highlighting the persistent threat posed by Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results and his incitement of the Capitol insurrection.
Trump’s ongoing insistence on electoral fraud and his legal entanglements fuel a narrative of democratic erosion, albeit with varying impacts on voter sentiment. Still, doubts persist about the electoral salience of democracy-focused discourse, with some viewing it as detached from everyday concerns.
The immigration debate remains contentious, with House Republicans impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and obstructing bipartisan border and immigration deals, echoing directives from former President Trump.
Recent visits by both Biden and Trump to the southern border highlight contrasting narrative: Biden emphasizes Republican obstructionism, calling for cooperation, while Trump focuses on condemning Biden’s policies and stoking fears of border chaos. Such divergent approaches are likely to dominate campaign rhetoric.
Amidst a backdrop of escalating climate crises, from wildfires to hurricanes, public awareness of climate change’s reality has surged. Polling data indicates widely support for meaningful action, even among a significant portion of Republicans.
However, the Republican campaign often disregards climate science, with Trump himself espousing disbelief in human-induced climate change and opposing clean energy initiatives. While criticisms persist over Biden’s climate record, his administration’s stance stands in stark opposition to Trump’s denialism, aligning firmly with calls for urgent action.
As the United States braces for the 2024 presidential elections, a prevailing sentiment of tolerance for flexibility within societal norms clashes with apprehensions regarding the potential return of former President Donald Trump to power. While flexibility is appreciated, there are limits, particularly concerning the implications of another Trump administration.
Various scenarios involving Trump’s candidacy raise concerns, ranging from questions about election security to fears of protests reminiscent of January 6th or perceived threats to individual freedoms should he secure another term. Independent voters, disillusioned with both major parties, find themselves without a clear political champion, and a decisive victory against Trump is seen as a potential solution to ongoing issues.
Trump’s chances in the upcoming elections largely hinge on facing off against President Joe Biden as his opponent. However, his vulnerabilities in foreign policy, particularly his favorable remarks towards Russia, risk alienating some traditional Republican supporters.
Despite murmurs of dissatisfaction with Biden’s presidency, potential challengers like Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson have failed to pose significant threats. Phillips, who briefly entered the race, ultimately dropped out and endorsed Biden. The primaries in eight states have seen candidate applications pouring in until March 24th.
Currently, Biden does not face a substantial threat from within the Democratic Party. However, uncertainties loom over his prospects against Trump, potentially prompting considerations for him to exit the race.
Should Biden withdraw, potential contenders like Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and former First Lady Michelle Obama could emerge as prominent figures, potentially reshaping the electoral landscape.
The ability of the Democratic Party to reach a consensus on a candidate following Biden’s hypothetical withdrawal would be crucial. Figures like Harris and Obama are likely to garner support from various segments of society, including independent voters. For Trump, the primary concern should not be dismissed legal challenges but rather the daunting prospects of facing formidable opponents like Harris or Obama if Biden were to step aside from the race.
| Issue | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|
| Reproductive Rights | The Biden administration has protected access to abortion, including FDA-approved medication abortion, defended access to emergency medical care, supported the ability to travel for reproductive health care, strengthened access to contraception, safeguarded patient and provider privacy, and ensured access to accurate information and legal resources. | Trump’s three Supreme Court nominees shifted the balance of the court, leading to the overturning of Roe vs. Wade. He believes abortion legislation should be decided by each state, previously suggesting a nationwide ban after 15 weeks. |
| Border Security | President Biden supported the bipartisan Senate Border Security Act, which aimed to provide additional funding for security and enable border shutdowns under certain conditions. Trump pledged to conduct the largest deportation in U.S. history, shift law enforcement focus to immigration, and terminate visas for Hamas sympathizers. | Trump initiated the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, suspended entry for individuals from certain countries, and aimed to deputize National Guard and local law enforcement for immigration enforcement. |
| Economy | Biden touted job creation, economic growth, low unemployment, and low inflation during his presidency. He signed the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. | Trump passed tax relief, doubled the child tax credit, slashed regulations, and saw increases in real wages and median household income. |
| Criminal Justice | Biden directed the Justice Department to end contracts with privately operated detention facilities, allocated funds to community safety initiatives, and expanded community grants for gun control measures. | Trump launched Operation Legend to combat violent crime, made surplus military equipment available to law enforcement, signed orders to prevent violence against officers, and passed the First Step Act for criminal justice reform. |
| Climate | Biden rejoined the Paris climate agreement, invested in clean energy and environmental justice, and met emissions reduction goals. | Trump withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, rolled back fossil fuel agreements, and aimed to increase domestic energy production while rejecting the Green New Deal. |
The Anti-Inflation Act, a linchpin of President Biden’s economic agenda, extends its ramifications far beyond national borders, intertwining with global relations and financial realms. Emphasizing clean energy and environmental stewardship, the Act aligns the United States with international efforts to combat climate change, potentially fostering stronger ties with allies committed to sustainability.
However, its protectionist aspects, exemplified by interventions in the US Steel acquisition and stalled negotiations with European automakers, unveil a nuanced stance on international trade. While aiming at fortifying the domestic economy and curbing inflation, these measures have elicited apprehensions among trading partners, hinting at apprehensions regarding a resurgence of American protectionism.
Meanwhile, on the monetary front, concerns at the Federal Reserve reflect the intricate dance between fiscal policy and economic stewardship. The persistent trend of loose fiscal policy, marked by government stimulus exceeding revenue intake by 5% of GDP, raises questions about the necessity for a marginally more restrictive monetary stance.
Expectations of the neutral rate for Fed funds inching upwards, currently standing at 2.6%, are shaped by factors such as burgeoning deficits and structural shifts in the economy aimed at bolstering supply chain resilience.
In the realm of presidential politics, prospects of a Trump presidency suggest potential alterations to the Federal Reserve’s landscape, with the incumbent expressing intentions to replace Jerome Powell upon the conclusion of his term in 2026. Such propositions hint at the prospect of a politicized Fed, evoking apprehensions within financial circles regarding its potential ramifications.
Turning to the financial domain, the nexus between US elections and market dynamics captivates observers, who meticulously track the potential ramifications of electoral outcomes. Historical precedents suggest that election years often usher in volatility as markets grapple with uncertainties surrounding policy shifts and their implications for economic growth.
Nevertheless, the enduring trajectory of financial markets tends to be swayed more by fundamental economic indicators than by political upheavals. Despite transient fluctuations, market resilience prevails, with investors adapting to new administrations and policy landscapes.
While the US elections hold considerable political and social significance domestically, the reverberations across the Atlantic carry profound economic implications for Europe. Beyond mere trade and fiscal policies, the outcomes have the potential to reshape security dynamics, profoundly impacting the continent.
Economically and commercially, the prospect of a Trump administration could herald transformations in the International Revenue Agency (IRA), which may offer a silver lining for Europe. The alteration could potentially terminate the ongoing subsidy competition for green investments, presenting an opportunity for European nations to recalibrate their economic strategies.
However, such shifts could also pose challenges to the global fight against climate change, compelling Europe to reassess the delicate equilibrium between economic imperatives and environmental sustainability. Amidst these complexities, Europe might find investment prospects, particularly in scenarios featuring more accommodative fiscal policies.
As the United States gears up for another round of electoral showdown between incumbent Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump, anticipation mounts not only within the nation but also across the globe.
The outcome of the election carries significant ramifications for the trajectory of government policy, as the winning candidate’s vision and priorities are poised to drive the legislative agenda for the foreseeable future. Whether it be matters of healthcare, taxation, climate change, or social welfare, the policies enacted by the incoming administration will profoundly impact the lives of Americans and reverberate throughout the global community.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
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