Bulls and bears are grappling with Bitcoin price of $ 34,000 with an option expiration of $ 445 million

Bitcoin (BTC) has hovered between $ 30,400 and $ 36,400 in the past 12 days, and it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for the lack of investor interest. Some analysts have pointed out that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which went live in mid-July, has finally given institutional investors a chance to surrender some of their funds, but that’s probably not why.

Meanwhile, industry leaders have suggested that the ongoing “cryptocurrency regulatory crackdown” in the United States is having a serious impact on investor sentiment, and that view is particularly important when China recently banned all cryptocurrency mining in the country.

Finally, prominent Bitcoin critics, including Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, have stated that the cryptocurrency is “failing miserably” as a currency.

Damodaran specifically cited the limited use of Bitcoin in microtransactions, despite the fact that El Salvador is pushing plans to democratize the Lightning Network solution.

Bulls have a higher chance of winning if they run weekly

After the bears won the latest $ 3 billion quarterly option expiry on Friday, the winds may have turned in the bulls’ favor this time around. While last week’s $ 34,000 level gave a $ 310 million advantage on neutral to bearish put options, next Friday, July 2nd, offers a completely different setup.

The initial picture shows a neutral structure with call options ranging from neutral to aggressive, with open interest dominating 8% of the call price. Of the $ 445 million in Open Interest, $ 230 million is represented by neutral to bullish funding options, giving the bulls a slight edge. However, a closer look at the data offers a different angle.

Connected: Cryptocurrency traders say a negative funding rate is a buy signal, but is it?

Only 18% of protection calls are placed at $ 33,000 or higher. So if Bitcoin traded above this level at 8 a.m. UTC on Friday, only those neutral to bearish instruments valued at $ 38 million would survive.

$ 34,000 is the balance for both sides

On the flip side, the bulls will likely try to defend the $ 34,000 level, which will result in $ 45 million in call (call) options open.

To be honest, both sides have an incentive to break that logical balance at $ 34,000. For example, above $ 35,000, the cops’ advantage increases from $ 7 million to $ 57 million.

Conversely, when Bitcoin trades below $ 33,000, the bears have the upper hand. In this case, the protective put opening rate is $ 31 million higher than the neutral to bullish call.

In summary, it is impossible to predict which side will get stronger on Friday. However, this was the first time in more than four weeks that the bulls had a good chance of fighting.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.