Key Points:
Adding this forecast to the current AUM of Grayscale Ethereum Trust would insinuate AUM for spot ETH ETFs in the US of around $13 billion to $15 billion by then.
Gemini has noted that Ether’s market value about bitcoin stands near multiyear lows. The expected inflows from spot ETH exchange-traded funds may strengthen this setup. “Given the AUM comparable in international ETF markets, robust on-chain dynamics, and differentiating factors such as a thriving stablecoin environment, there is favourable risk-reward of an ETH catch-up trade in the months to come,” said Gemini.
The SEC has already approved the initial filings for Ethereum spot ETFs, which are expected to begin trading within the next few months. This occurred after bitcoin spot ETFs were allowed to trade in the United States in January this year.
Gemini’s report further speculates that if the ether/bitcoin ratio returns to the median value of the past three years, it could appreciate 20% to 0.067. A return to the maximum value of 0.087 would represent a 55% rally.
Gemini also noted that net inflows below $3 billion for the Ethereum spot ETFs would be a disappointment since information for bitcoin ETFs in their first six months saw $15 billion in inflows. A strong performance would show up from above $5 billion inflows, while inflows near $7.5 billion, nearly 50% of the levels of bitcoin ETFs, would be a “significant upside surprise.”
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