Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $ 67,276 2 days ago and a lot has changed since then. The behavior of the investors shows a significant difference in the hours before and after ATH.
In any case, higher prices benefit not only the long-term owners for the sake of profit, but the market as a whole.
After the highly anticipated new ATH shutdown, the supply of long-term holders began to decline, suggesting that they were handing out coins.
With a decline of 37,000 in just 3 days, these investors sold over $ 2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin supply from LTH | Source: Glassnode
However, this is not surprising as the market can fully predict the sales trend. Because LTH usually buys when the price is weak and sells when the price is high. The distribution we are just seeing will mark the return of the Short Term (STH) Holders.
Since the rally in May, their stocks have steadily declined until now. In the past, STH stocks only increased when the supply of LTH decreased. And that will happen in the meantime.
LTH-STH Bitcoin supply | Source: Glassnode
Not really. Since ATH, BTC has fallen about 9% and is currently trading at $ 61,244 at press time. However, despite continued selling pressure, supply was only marginally 1.59% higher.
Bitcoin UTXO Real Price Distribution | Source: Glassnode
In addition, as can be seen on the illiquid supply shock rate graph, supply continues to shift to on-chain companies. These companies are expected to sell very little (less than 0.25% of the supply they bought).
This means that the market is currently only making a short-term correction while the long-term picture remains unchanged.
Bitcoin’s illiquid supply shock rate | The source: Glass knot
Plus, the real cap tilt is proof that Bitcoin investors are taking profits and new inflows absorb them after falling for most of the summer.
Bitcoin Adjusted Real Cap | The source: Glass knot
This move by the investors will benefit the market like the hype surrounding BTC and will continue to attract new investors.
The more distributed the LTH offer, the more profit is secured and the chances of an increase in LTH are improved. This leads to a further strengthening of the market.
The quantitative analyst PlanB predicts that Bitcoin will continue to recover on a large parabolic path over the next few months.
PlanB is the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Bitcoin model. This model predicts the price of the leading cryptocurrency by measuring the amount of new supply that hits the market each year in relation to the supply that already exists.
In a new interview with Unleashed Podcasts, the Bitcoin analyst points to S2F’s minimum price pattern as a reliable indicator that enables him to determine the monthly closing price of BTC in August and September.
“The pattern that has drawn the most attention over the past few months was the reserve price. Because on June 20, Investment Director Guggenheim predicted that Bitcoin would go below $ 20,000 – but I made a prediction: “No, no, no, it will go up to $ 47,000.
Bitcoin was below $ 34,000 at the time. I said, “It’s going to close over $ 47,000 in August. In September the price fell slightly but closed above $ 43,000 and in October above $ 63,000. “
The source: Plan B
According to him, if BTC continues to follow the bottom price predictions of the S2F model, it could soar more than 44% from its current level of $ 60,000 in November and trigger another major rally in December.
“To be honest, I would be surprised if it didn’t happen. It would be a Black Swan event that we haven’t seen in 10 years.
But if this continues, BTC will hit $ 98,000 in November and $ 135,000 in December.
Although he expects the price to skyrocket in the coming months, he believes Bitcoin cannot avoid the sharp correction that followed every major bull cycle.
“I think the world is not ready for super bitcoinization or a super cycle.
The market will be greedy now and fear later. The price will drop 80% after people deposit a few hundred thousand dollars. “
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Minh Anh
According to AZCoin News
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