Another Bitcoin ETF – Plan B is true again

Another Bitcoin Future ETF in action

Bitcoin saw a slight decline to around $ 60,000 yesterday. And the altcoins also fell, but there were also slight increases. The falling market could be due to profit taking and not bad news. The big news is that Valkyrie’s second Bitcoin Future ETF has officially traded on the US exchange. Many similar funds will be approved and operated in the coming period.

The Bitcoin Future ETF share price is based on the CME Bitcoin Futures contract price. And the price of BTC futures on the CME exchange is based on the actual BTC price traded in the market. The Bitcoin Future ETF fund share price will therefore have a certain lag compared to the Bitcoin price.

In the US, Bitcoin is not considered a security, but an asset. Mutual funds that want to invest in trusts must therefore invest in Bitcoin indirectly via ETFs. For individuals, investing directly in Bitcoin is more profitable than investing in ETFs.

On-chain situation

The Bitcoin price correction resulted in the BTC win rate being reduced to 95%.

Other on-chain indices also recorded slight corrections such as NUPL, RHOOL Ratial or Market Cap To Thermocap etc. In October, Plan B was right when it reached the price of 63,000 USD.

The Bitcoin amount deposited on the exchange is usually still larger than the BTC amount deposited on the exchange. Despite profit-taking, purchasing power was strong enough to absorb the amount of BTC that was pushed to the ground to take profits.

At Ethereum yesterday the withdrawal amount was larger than the deposit, but the difference between deposit and withdrawal was not significant. The long-term trend is that ETH will be pulled off the exchange faster than BTC.

The overnight funding rate on the futures exchanges also cooled off. The order volume for futures contracts also fell, but remained at a high level.

Looking back, since BTC went into the early winter of 2018, the amount of BTC on the exchanges has increased. But after Bitcoin halved in May 2020, the amount of BTC on the exchange began to drop rapidly. This resulted in a decline in market supply and Bitcoin started a strong rally from early 2021.

A stock on CryptoQuant also showed more clearly the correlation between the amount of BTC on the exchanges (blue line) and its price over time.

In addition, since the heavy sell-off earlier this year, the miners have also topped up their BTC storage. Miners continue to accumulate BTC so far. Though there was an earlier sale when China banned mining activities in the country.

The period when miners moved en masse due to the implementation of a mining ban by the Chinese government resulted in a sudden drop in the pace of mining. It’s an opportunity to shift the pace of BTC mining away from China and into other countries, including the United States. So far the mining speed has recovered quickly and the US is also the country with the fastest mining speed.

To date, Bitcoin price has exceeded $ 63,000 and is in line with Plan B’s forecast. At the same time, the stock-to-flow (S2F) model for BTC price continues to apply.

If BTC follows the 2012 price pattern, the BTC price could reach $ 288,000. Or it could also hit $ 100,000 if you followed the 2017 model. Here are two BTC price predictions that have been made and we’ll see where BTC can reach.

Other information:

• Recently, Binance’s BNB coin made a proposal to burn coins similar to ETH. Binance launched BNB in ​​2017 with a total offering of 200 million BNB. The initial function of BNB is for users to pay transaction fees on the exchange and enjoy some incentives like referral commissions. Later, BNB was also expanded to include Binance Smart Chain. Currently, Binance is withdrawing part of the BNB it has collected to burn quarterly until a total supply of 100 million BNB is reached. If the proposal to burn copper is adopted, the total supply of BNB could therefore drop to less than VND 100 million.

• The SEC’s judge-approved proceedings against Ripple will be extended by two months as requested by the SEC. This means the lawsuit could last until May 2022. The news is not good for Ripple and especially for the price of XRP. Many expect XRP to grow if the lawsuit ends well.