Bitcoin bull market “second stage has begun”

Bitcoin, which hit a new high of $ 67,000 last week, opened the door for the opportunity to hit $ 100,000 by the end of the year.

PlanB, the creator of the popular Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, called the retracement to USD 60,000 the “second leg” of a long-term bull market. He emphasized in a tweet yesterday:

“The second stage of the Bitcoin bull market has begun.”

Citing the S2F model, he predicts that BTC will continue to rise by the end of the year, reaching between $ 100,000 and $ 135,000.

The price prediction model claims that thanks to the “halving” that occurs every four years, which cuts BTC spending in half relative to the supply cap of 21 million, Bitcoin will continue to rise until at least $ 288,000.

Bitcoin after the halving of 2012, 2016 and 2020 | Source: PlanB

Notably, Bitcoin has seen 3 halves so far: 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Each event reduces the percentage of the new offer by 50%, resulting in a significant increase in the BTC price. For example, the first two halves drove the price up more than 10,000% and 2,960% respectively.

The third halving saw the price jump from $ 8,787 to a high of $ 66,999, an increase of 667.5%. So far, S2F has largely accurately predicted the crypto king’s price action, as shown in the chart below, so the bulls are hoping for a third rally after the halving to push the price above the $ 100,000 mark.

S2F Bitcoin from October 26th | Source: PlanB

PlanB noted earlier this year that Bitcoin will hit $ 98,000 in November and $ 135,000 in December. The only thing that can keep BTC from hitting six-digit numbers is the “Black Swan Event” that the market has seen for the past decade.

80% crash afterwards

Despite the high price forecasts, Bitcoin could see even bigger corrections in the future. Plan B suppose i think The next crash could wipe out at least 80% of Bitcoin’s market cap, based on the same S2F model.

“Everyone is hoping that the super cycle or super bitcoinization will start now and that we won’t have a major crash after the next all-time highs.

I hope it is so true that there will be no more price collapses, I think the market will. […] Greed dominates at the moment and fear then, it collapses by 80% after depositing a few hundred thousand dollars at the top. ”

BTC / USD 4-Hour Price Chart | Source: TradingView

But not everyone thinks the next adjustment will be as dramatic as the previous ones. Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, said the next halving would be less than 80% in mid-October, citing a steady decline in sales sentiment after each halving cycle.

Last week, Bitcoin hit a new record high of around $ 67,000 after rising 53% since the beginning of October, but the new high has boosted traders’ profit-taking, leading to a re-test of the $ 60,000 support .

Important levels to watch

Analyst and trader Benjamin Cowen said he was keeping a close eye on key Bitcoin price levels that could indicate the bulls are in control.

In a new strategy meeting, Cowen speak that when Bitcoin closes above USD 60,000 on the weekly chart, the leading cryptocurrency has found strong support.

“Ideally, BTC will close above $ 60,000 (on the weekly chart). Why? Because it can indicate that the price is finding support at the same level that the previous resistance was. That is the only reason.

Is a relapse still possible? Yes sir. But I just want to say that the bulls are holding at this level, which shows that there are many buyers trying to reverse the 3 month resistance as support.

Source: Benjamin Cowen

The analyst also says $ 60,000 is a psychologically important level for Bitcoin as the bulls struggled to keep a price above it earlier this year.

“Let’s see how much time BTC has over $ 60,000. Price didn’t really spend a lot of time above $ 60,000 earlier this year, with only a few daily candles above it: March 2021 and April 2021.

Most of the time, BTC operates below the $ 60,000 mark. Now the price is staying above that level and that’s pretty good. ”

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