US October Jobs Surge to 233K, Q3 GDP Growth Falls Below Expectations

Key Points:

• The US added 233K jobs in October, the highest since July 2023, showing resilience in the labour market.
• Core PCE index rises to 2.2% in Q3—slightly above expectations, suggesting inflation pressures remain.
• Q3 GDP hits 2.8%, missing the 3% forecast, signalling economic momentum may be waning.

The US October jobs unexpectedly rose, with the ADP employment report adding 233,000 jobs, the most significant increase since July 2023.

US October Jobs Sees Impressive Growth Surg

Such a substantial increase in private hiring would indicate a possibly strong labour market as businesses continue to hire aggressively despite the economic uncertainties.

Besides the US October jobs surge, other measures of the economy are mixed. Core PCE, one of the key measures of inflation, stood at 2.2% for the third quarter. This is slightly above forecasts for 2.1% but lower than 2.8% in the prior quarter. In that sense, it reflects some cooling in inflation. However, the slight overshoot compared to expectations may dampen the prospects for future Fed decisions.

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Q3 GDP Growth Slows, Falling Short of Forecast

The third-quarter Gross Domestic Product was reported to have grown 2.8%, missing the forecast for 3% and a hair below the 3% growth rate in the prior quarter. The slowdown pace of GDP growth would reflect a still-expanding economy that is losing steam compared to earlier in the year. This moderation could reflect a host of challenges, from the high interest rates the Federal Reserve has put in place to control inflation.

The US October jobs may have been interpreted as a sign of resilience, while GDP and inflation numbers reflect a reason for caution. As the year wears on, investors and economists will closely watch upcoming data releases for any continued shifts in the economy.