‘Uptober’ closes with a record high in the best month of 2021 – 5 things to watch out for

Bitcoin (BTC) sees a volatile start to a new week and month after its first month-end closing above $ 60,000 – what next?

After the eagerly anticipated end of “Uptober”, the bulls are looking to November to deliver the next phase of their hoped-for – and sometimes promising – bull run. BTC is like no other.

Times change and so do the predictions. BTC / USD reserves could hit nearly $ 100,000 a month close this month – but could also plummet to nearly $ 50,000.

With all to play and solid buyer support while holding $ 50,000, Cointelegraph will take a look at what could affect Bitcoin price action in the coming week.

October 2021 is the best month since 2020

Regardless of what happens next, market participants are in a celebratory mood this week as Bitcoin hit its highest monthly close in its history.

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Not just $ 60,000, but $ 61,000 is now a target to beat in November.

Bitcoin was far from “just” for short periods of time, however, ending with a notable drop in volatility on Sunday after rising to $ 59,500 before another surprise surged above $ 62,000 hours later.

Perhaps a little worrisome are fans of PlanB’s worst-case price forecasts, which will reach at least $ 63,000 by the end of October.

While the series is still more or less on the right track, $ 98,000 must be on the table by the end of this month for the series to maintain its historical accuracy.

For PlanB itself, however, the results are more than just satisfaction.

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“Yes, Bitcoin must not close above $ 63,000 this month,” said Cointelegraph employee Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile. Add about the situation.

“However, his success rate at $ 100 trillion on the stock flow model is better than your trading performance, so I wouldn’t really appreciate him. Bitcoin at $ 61,000 is fine and close enough. “

After correcting from its overnight lows, BTC / USD is trading at around $ 62,000. October was the best month since December 2020 with a return of only 40%.

8. Difficulty level in a row

Those looking for something that really “points up” need look no further than the basics of the Bitcoin network.

This week, the difficulty leads to an eighth consecutive positive correction – something that has not happened since 2018.

As the increasingly competitive mining sector reflects, the difficulty of mining has now made up for the losses it inevitably suffered after China forced miners to lay down their tools in May.

The difficulty level will climb to 21.89 trillion this week, well below the all-time high of just over 3 trillion.

The hash rate – a measure of mining-specific computing power – tells a similar story.

Although it cannot be clearly “measured”, hash rates still tend to hit all-time highs, the estimates show.

Raw data tends to go up and down, and different estimates often result in significantly different readings. However, the weekly average hash rate is now around 159 exahashes per second (EH / s) – closer than ever to April’s record of 180 EH / s.

Hodler hodl on

September offers Bitcoin buyers a golden “buy-down” opportunity, and October was not without short-term price declines.

Have you bought dips yet? When you have done this, you have added yourself to an increasingly powerful group of long-term apprentices whose beliefs only increased in October.

As found in research by the major exchange, Kraken, last week, the price rally and all-time high of $ 67,100 failed to attract BTC sellers.

Remarkably, the trend remained unfazed, although long-term owners were unfazed by last month’s retracement and used it as an opportunity to keep accumulating, the researchers concluded.

“In other words, the supply shock long-term owners bought last month is only getting worse this month.”

They added that it will be these companies, and not short-term speculators, that will drive price action in the fourth quarter of this year.

This is in line with previous analysis, particularly by analyst Willy Woo, which shows that so-called “last resort” or “Rick Astley” investors continue to hold on to their investment. As of 2020, the long-term owners will include the miners themselves.

Courting Note this weekend.

“Miners have not had long-term cumulative behavior since 2009-2014.”

Lowest currency balance since October 2018

When it comes to supply shocks, the picture of the stock exchanges is bleak – from the perspective of a Bitcoin bear.

Based on new data The BTC reserves of the online chain analysis company Glassnode are currently at a three-year low.

At that time, in late 2018, Bitcoin entered the pit of its previous bear market, which bottomed out at $ 3,100 in December.

Since then, price action has changed an order of magnitude, but the balance is still dwindling – everything points to the size of the potential shock should demand rise from here.

The exchanges currently control 2.47 million BTC, while at their peak in April 2020, there were more than 3.1 million BTC on their order books.

Changes in balance can vary significantly between exchanges. For example, Coinbase Pro led the way in the past 24 hours, losing nearly 20,000 BTC while several other players increased their balances slightly.

Markets expect the Fed to cut the announcements

The next week could spark some well-known trends in traditional markets – and their impact on crypto markets.

Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies You Should See This Week: BTC, ETH, BNB, MATIC, FTM

These could come about thanks to new comments from the US Federal Reserve on coronavirus management on Tuesday and Wednesday, as markets expect more signals of declining asset purchases.

It does when global inflation rises, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously acknowledged that the accompanying narrative – the supply chain crisis – is likely to continue “for the coming year.”

“I think the Fed is pretty well defined to start slowing down pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start shortly after, so that’s pretty well set in stone, “said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, last week to Yahoo Finance.

“I think the big debate right now is how quickly the Fed will actually hike rates. Indeed, market expectations have shifted to expecting no more than two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 … that’s a pretty strong pace of tightening. “

Such conditions are intended to increase the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an inherently deflationary asset class with a mathematically verifiable supply limit.

Institutions are investing in existing Bitcoin investment products as well as newly launched Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which indicates growing demand.

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