Bitcoin closes October with a record high – 5 things to watch out for this week

October 2021 will be the best month for Bitcoin price promotions since December 2020 with a 40% increase and even beat the first quarter.

Bitcoin sees a volatile start to a new week and month after its first month-end closing above $ 60,000 – what next?

After the bulls ended October as expected, the bulls expect an equally bullish phase in November.

Time goes by and predictions change too. Bitcoin could close near $ 100,000 a month, but it could also drop to nearly $ 50,000 this month.

With solid buyer support on inventory above $ 50,000, we’re going to take a look at what could affect Bitcoin price action over the next week.

October 2021 will be the most powerful month since 2020

No matter what happens next, market participants are in the mood celebration as Bitcoin’s highest end of the month in history.

Not just $ 60,000, but $ 61,000 is now a target to beat in November.

Bitcoin only recovered for short periods of time, however, and by late Sunday (October 31st) saw a notable drop in volatility. A roller coaster ride to $ 59,500 before suddenly suddenly surpassing $ 62,000.

This month was a little below PlanB’s worst-case forecast, but more or less on the right track. However, to continue maintaining accuracy, it must hit $ 98,000 by the end of this month.

For PlanB itself, however, the results are more than just satisfaction.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1454962054297788417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener
Michael van de Poppe Say more about the situation ”

“It’s true that Bitcoin didn’t close above $ 63,000 this month, but its stock-to-flow (S2F) model success rate is better than your trading performance, so I have no complaints about PlanB. Bitcoin at $ 61,000 is fine and close enough. ”

After correcting from the lows, Bitcoin trades at around $ 62,000. October was the best month since December 2020 with a return of only 40%.

BTC / USD 1 month candlestick chart | Source: TradingView

Difficulty increased for the 8th time in a row

This week, the difficulty is likely to see an eighth positive correction in a row – something that has not happened since 2018.

As reflected in the increasingly competitive mining sector, the troubles have now fully offset the losses after China forced miners to shut down and flee the country in May.

The difficulty will climb to 21.89 trillion this week, well below the immediate ATH of nearly 3 trillion.

Hashrate – a measure of mining-specific computing power – tells a similar story.

Although it cannot be “measured” accurately, the hashrate still tends to reach ATH as the estimates show.

Raw data tends to fluctuate up and down, and different estimates often produce significantly different results. However, the weekly average hashrate is now around 159 exahashes per second (EH / s) – closer to the record high of 180 EH / s in April than ever before.

Bitcoin’s average 7-day hashrate | Source: Blockchain

Hodler holds on more and more tightly

September offers Bitcoin buyers a golden opportunity to “buy the dip,” and October was not without short-term price declines.

Have you bought the dip yet? If so, then congratulations on joining the group of longtime owners whose beliefs only grew in October.

As it was Note According to research on the Kraken exchange last week, the price spike, hitting an ATH of $ 67,100, gave investors no reason to sell their holdings.

“It is noteworthy that, despite a significant price recovery, this trend has remained unchanged, up to an ATH of nearly $ 67,000.”

“In other words, the supply shock that long-term owners have accumulated over the past month has intensified this month.”

They added that it will be these companies, and not short-term speculators, that will drive price action in the fourth quarter of this year.

One analysis by analyst Willy Woo shows Rick Astley investors (owners waiting for an opportunity) remain confident about their investments. From 2020, one of the long-term owners will be the miners themselves.

“As of 2020, miners have become owners (and buyers) of BTC, which is a huge change in behavior. Miners have had no persistent cumulative behavior since 2009-2014. ”

Source: Kraken

Bitcoin market balance lowest since October 2018

When it comes to supply shocks, the picture on the stock exchanges is bleak.

follow data The amount of Bitcoin stored on exchanges is now at a three-year low, according to a new report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

In late 2018, Bitcoin entered the previous bear market pit, causing the price to bottom out at $ 3,100 in December.

Since then, price action has changed, but the equilibrium is still fading – everything points to the size of the potential shock should demand rise from here.

The exchanges currently control 2.47 million BTC, while at their peak in April 2020, there were more than 3.1 million BTC on their order books.

Bitcoin balance chart on exchanges | Source: Glassnode

Changes in balance can vary significantly between exchanges. For example, Coinbase Pro led the decline at nearly 20,000 BTC for the past 24 hours while several other exchanges increased their balances slightly.

Markets await contraction announcement from Fed

The new week could spark some familiar trends in traditional markets – and their impact on crypto markets.

These could come about thanks to new comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the management of the Covid-19 pandemic on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the markets expect signs of a decline in property purchases (tapering).

It comes when global inflation picks up, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously acknowledged that the supply chain crisis is likely to continue for the next year.

Kathy Jones, Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab, said:

“I think the Fed is pretty well defined to start slowing down pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start work shortly after, and that won’t change.

I think the big debate right now is how quickly the Fed will raise rates. The highest estimate on the market right now is two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 … that’s a pretty strong tightening rate. ”

Such conditions help to increase the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a deflationary asset class with a mathematically verifiable supply limit.

More and more institutions are turning to existing Bitcoin investment products, along with newly launched Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which indicates growing demand.

Bitcoin ETF Assets Managed vs. Price Chart | Source: Bybt

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