Bitcoin Key Momentum Indicator suggests a bullish divergence as BTC holds $ 33,000

The RSI is seeing a higher low after recovering from the oversold areas and Bitcoin price is making a lower low.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the speed and variability of directional price movements. It works in a specific range from 0 to 100. The closer the RSI gets to 0, the weaker the price momentum. Conversely, the RSI near 100 reflects a period of strong momentum.

This range also helps identify opportunities to buy and sell assets. In particular, an RSI below 30 means the asset is oversold, which is an attractive buying opportunity. On the other hand, an RSI above 70 indicates that the asset is overbought, which means that the owners will eventually sell to make a profit.

RSI also enables traders to identify buy / sell opportunities based on divergences between price and momentum. For example, if the price hits a new low but the RSI hits a higher low, it is considered a buy signal – bullish divergence. Conversely, a bearish RSI divergence occurs when prices hit a new high but a lower high.

So Bitcoin confirms a bullish divergence.

The independent market analyst CryptoBirb discovered a price-momentum deviation on the one-day chart of Bitcoin. In it, he noted that BTC / USD was making a series of lower lows around the same time as the RSI rose to higher lows.

Bitcoin price falls against rising RSI | Source: TradingView.com, CryptoBirb

The statement came as BTC / USD was revised down since it made a local high of $ 36,675 on June 29. However, as of press time, the pair is trading above $ 33,500. The RSI fell along with the recent bearish move and is currently near 42, a neutral to bullish area.

Difficulties pile up

The bearish sentiment in the Bitcoin market continued due to a number of pessimistic events, including a global cryptocurrency crackdown that began with the ban in China in May and spread to the UK, India, South Africa and the United States.

For example, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has banned the world’s leading exchange, Binance, from conducting regulated activities in the UK. In addition, the Enforcement Administration in India issued an official notice on Binance-affiliated exchange WazirX to facilitate money laundering.

But that’s not all, the “hawkish” stance of the US Federal Reserve is making the situation even more difficult. The US Federal Reserve caught Bitcoin investors by surprise with its sudden intention to control inflationary pressures by raising interest rates in 2023. BTC / USD fell more than 28% after the Fed’s big reveal, but then rebounded after finding reliable support near $ 30,000.

However, the bulls are still failing to maintain the Bitcoin uptrend above $ 40,000. As a result, the top cryptocurrency is stuck in the $ 30,000 to $ 40,000 range and not showing a clear short-term trend.

Bitcoin based ant Will retest the channel’s support trendline after it reduction recently | Source: TradingView

Konstantin Anissimov, CEO of CEX.IO, also noted that accredited investors are starting to distance themselves from Bitcoin because of its environmental impact. He added that mainstream market interest in cryptocurrencies will return as miners turn to alternative sustainable energy options.

“With the environmental concerns resolved, more institutional investors are likely to return to trusting digital currencies and buying more. The short-term forecast is $ 50,000 and the longer-term forecast is $ 75,000. “

paradigm Wyckoff: United StatesCryptocurrencies can take another 6 weeks

Analysts warn that the Wyckoff spring period could be in the future as the increased pressure will lead to another low for Bitcoin.

Recently, Wyckoff’s cumulative technical chart pattern has become the latest trend when it comes to predicting where Bitcoin price could go next. Some analysts have said the recent drop below $ 29,000 signals a “spring period” which is usually followed by a rally to the upside.

BTC / USDT price vs. model tWyckoff accumulation | Source: Twitter

While bulls point to a continuation of the uptrend into 2021, others warn that Bitcoin price is not yet out of danger, especially in the short term.

According to Filbfilb, an independent market analyst and co-founder of the Decentrader trading suite, bullish traders may get excited and confused about the speed of the recovery too soon.

Wyckoff seems to be the taste of the month right now.

Over the years, I’ve found that most people have one main thing in common, which is to assume that accumulation is happening faster than it actually does and to ignore the size of the drawdown. pic.twitter.com/bqWeFBVtV3

– fil fil (@filbfilb) July 2, 2021

“Wyckoff seems to be the taste of the month at the moment. Over the years I’ve found that most people have one thing in common: the assumption that accumulation will happen faster than it actually is and ignore the extent. Discount“.

Notably, the Wyckoff pattern has been redrawn several times over the past few weeks as the chartists attempt to adjust price action to reflect their views on what is to come. As a result, Filbfilb says they’re likely to ignore other warning signs and avoid dates that don’t fit their point of view.

“I’ve seen it drawn over and over for the past few weeks … but when it is indeed the bottom, there is a trend towards a correlation between the size of the downtrend and the time to accumulate again.”

Terms and conditions threatened ability rehibit

One of the biggest hurdles to higher BTC recovery was identified by many as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s unblocking plan, which showed that large amounts of GBTC had not been blocked by mid-July.

Twitter user Mr. The Prosperity tweets:

“Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) will unlock 2,000 BTC (~ $ 69 million) on July 12 and an additional 16,000 BTC (~ $ 550 million) on July 17. Investors are likely to sell shares in the Bitcoin trust they bought in January (for $ 32,000 to $ 42,000). “

As can be seen in the graphic below, the largest GBTC unlock of the year will take place in July and should put some pressure on the price, especially as some of the previous major unlock days coincide with price fluctuations; Big BTC in recent months.

Unlock schedule Trust fund Bitcoin mining in grayscale | Source: bybt.com

Because of these potential troubles, Filbfilb says what will happen in the near future “is too early to predict because we haven’t had enough time down below,” and suggests that it could be as early as the fourth quarter of the cycle begins. Completion period.

“If it works, I think it will look like the chart I shared in late Q3 / early Q4 and we could see another sharp drop in lows after a re-bid test.”

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