The bitcoin futures market has reset the funding rate to moderate. After the recent price move in the $ 58,000 to $ 69,000 range, the metric has gone down. Similar to the bull run after COVID in 2020, however, the macrobulistic tendency of the funding rate is now becoming clear.
At the same time, the momentum of the Open Interest (OI) decreased due to the price movement in the last 2 weeks.
Source: CryptoQuant
The market is now structured as it was in December 2020. The key point here is that the monthly real cap oscillator structure (30-day profit-taking rate) is inconsistent with the structure seen in April 2021, when the market took profits of 5-10% of capitalization. This index is currently still below 5%, which corresponds to December 2020.
Source: CryptoQuant
Studying a graph of UTXO changes over the past 14 days can show the number of coins transferred on the network. Almost 28% of selling pressure came from coins last bought in the $ 61.8,000 to $ 64.2,000 range.
Source: tsypruyan
On the flip side, nearly 58% of selling pressure was absorbed by buyers between $ 65.1,000 and $ 69,000. If we look at these numbers, we can see that the old coins are not currently being sold on a massive scale. Additionally, the $ 60,000 level is expected to provide strong support and can weather possible short-term price moves.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen is exploring the possibility that Bitcoin has just formed a huge double top, a bearish pattern that often signals the beginning of a downtrend.
The source: Benjamin Cowen
In a new strategy meeting, Cowen said that instead of a double top, the crypto king seems to be converting the former “heavy” resistance into support.
“I don’t see it as dual leadership. What I mean is that we are most likely building support at the macro level. For example, if you look at the weekly timeframe, it is 60. I can see that. ”
Cowen also said that with the total volume around the $ 60,000 mark, it could bottom the next bear market if it shows up.
“I think there is a good chance that the current price could be around the next bear market low in the future. It can be a little lower or higher. I don’t think Bitcoin will go back to $ 20,000 or $ 30,000.
If you asked me what the lower bound for Bitcoin is, I would probably just stick to the 20-week moving average … ”
The 20-week simple moving average (SMA) combined with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) forms what Cowen calls the “bull market support band”. The 20-week SMA is currently around $ 47,000 and rising slowly every day.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin appears to be in the process of creating long-term macro-level support that could become an “absolute fear” price range in the years to come.
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Minh Anh
According to AZCoin News
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