Has Bitcoin reached this cycle?

BTC is down nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, falling below $ 60,000 for the first time in 3 weeks. At the same time, the leading crash in the crypto market dropped total capitalization to $ 2.55 trillion, a decline of more than 10% in just a few days.

BTC price 4-hour chart | Source: Tradingview

While the move has impacted the price charts and resulted in some signs of “weak hands” selling, many market participants are exhibiting a curious and contrary psychosocial condition.

On the one hand, the mood in society looks pretty optimistic, as the admonitions to “buy dip” find their way onto Twitter. On the flip side, many analysts point to a downside potential with $ 69,000 as the top of the market.

So is $ 69,000 the top of BTC?

While BTC’s development has rocked the market so far, it remains uncertain whether $ 69,000 is actually the top of the market. However, there seems to be clear evidence that the market has not yet reached its potential based on the historical behavior of BTC and the cyclical patterns that have signaled market spikes in the past.

The Mayer Multiple calculates the ratio between the price and the 200 DMA, which is an effective indicator for evaluating market spikes. At press time, it was trading at 2.4, which signals a slim chance of a high where the price has risen 2.4x over time and has remained well above the 200 DMA.

Accordingly, BTC will have a higher price range, which is currently at $ 110,000, according to Glassnode. To sum up, the trend can be higher or lower as the price and 200 DMA change.

The source: Glass knot

Additionally, at $ 214,000, the top of the price pattern appears to offer the highest value in the current cycle. Here, it’s worth noting that the average all-time high price changes much more slowly than the 200 DMA, making the top pattern less volatile.

The source: Glass knot

The average Bitcoin price target for December 8th remains at $ 84,000, according to Ecoinometrics. Hence, it seems that $ 69,000 is still far from the top of the market.

If so, what do the recent market corrections mean?

The market isn’t too hot yet

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV rate is -3.5, which indicates that the average return of all addresses that bought BTC in the last month is -3.5. Looking back, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV rate was + 7.18% just a week ago.

The source: mood

Interestingly, while the short-term MVRV ratio suggests some potential for price rally, it is still signaling a lot more downside volatility before it hits the opportunity zone, according to data from Santiment.

Finally, a green bar will flash in the NVT pattern as the day progresses, indicating that Bitcoin’s market cap is too low relative to the amount of BTC moving on the blockchain. However, if bitcoin activity levels can hold up in the coming days despite easing pressure, it could be a hopeful sign of a quick rebound.

It seems the best option right now is to sit back and do HODL or do your own research on potential buy / sell zones.

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Minh Anh

According to AMBCrypto

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