$ 60k Turns Into Resistance – 5 Bitcoin Things To See This Week
Bitcoin started the week with a rare depressed state during the bull run in the fourth quarter as it was unable to break previous support.
After a promising weekend, BTC was rejected twice for $ 60,000 and fell below $ 57,000 as market momentum subsided.
However, some believe that the “sky high” Bitcoin price target can still be met by the end of the month, while others insist that this bull market will last longer than the previous ones.
With November more likely to break tradition and put BTC at risk (compared to the last few months and years of bull market), traders and analysts are preparing for a rally.
The article looks at five factors that could affect BTC price action during the last week of this unprecedentedly tense “November to Moon”.
$ 60,000 becomes resistance
For most of the weekend, the analyst sentiment was simple: “It could get worse.”
After BTC hit a five-week low of $ 55,650, BTC managed to recoup some of its losses. The price even “jumped” on Saturday and looked like it could cross the $ 60,000 mark.
However, this ultimately failed. But there was a follow-up attempt on Sunday and Bitcoin enjoyed a few minutes in the $ 60,000 range before a drastic rejection crashed the market again.
At the time of writing, the price is trading in the $ 57,000 area and it is clear that previously solid support has turned into resistance.
Prominent trader Pentoshi has reiterated its desire for BTC to regain the $ 61,000 mark on further upward moves.
$ BTC why 61k important?
Bc support bc came resistance. Hence the focus on this area for me for now.
Here’s another way to look at it.
What I want? I want it over 61k. Is the market interested in what we want?
$ 61,000 for the return of the bull pic.twitter.com/egMRfuLxfV
– Pentoshi won’t condemn you. hates dms. DMs are scams (@ Pentosh1) November 22, 2021
“Why is $ 61,000 important? Support turns into resistance. So I am now focusing on this area. I want the price to be over $ 61,000. Is the market interested in what we want? Are not. $ 61,000 to bring the cows back. “
From early November 2021 until today, the holder’s return has been -6.5%, making it one of three negative November returns in Bitcoin’s history.
As reported, Bitcoin usually does very well in November, for example November 2020 brought in a return of almost 43%.
Elsewhere, however, Sunday’s decline filled the most recent CME futures void that emerged on Friday.
For the Crypto Ed crypto trader and analyst, this is a must for a higher percentage of trading prices back into the new week. Brothers speak:
“20th November and current status (November 21): runs as expected. Waiting for another drop to fill the CME and to rise from there in the coming days. “
Bitcoin CME 1-hour futures candlestick chart shows a gap | Source: TradingView
Not everyone is surprised or concerned about Bitcoin’s corrective moves.
Short periods of time can paint a very different picture of market conditions than longer periods of time. This is exactly what commentators are looking to help explain this week’s long-term bullish thesis.
“Zoom out when in doubt” – compared to the performance 2 years ago after the halving, Bitcoin is still on the right track.
Remarkably similar correction structures so far on the #BTC 8 HOURS.
Almost 4 years apart to the day.
Since July 2021 is still 5-8 days behind 2017. pic.twitter.com/B60HQlPCec
– TechDev (@ TechDev_52) November 21, 2021
“So far, similar correction structures can be seen on the 8-hour BTC chart. Just before the date of 4 years ago. Since July 2021 is still 5-8 days behind 2017. “
TechDev points out data showing that this year, Bitcoin not only replicates the performance of 2017, but actually replicates the time frames for each phase of the bull market.
If this continues, a recession peak is also expected – but with greater intensity than during the $ 20,000 setup in 2017.
That being said, TechDev’s chart also shows that the Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reflecting performance from 2017, especially in November.
Typically, bull highs are accompanied by an RSI of 90 or higher, which is a long way from current levels on lower time frames.
Funding rate increases
While the price could not rise above $ 60,000, attempting to break out of the lower levels had an undesirable impact on the derivatives market, with traders increasing leverage again.
After the financing rate was “reset” to practically neutral last week due to the price decline, it is trending upwards again.
Given the over-positive status, OKEx, Bybit and others are bullish at the time of writing – expect more gains.
This can often produce undesirable results as falling prices liquidate large positions and create a snowball effect that causes prices to drop even further.
So far, however, the number of liquidations hasn’t been overwhelming – $ 70 million for Bitcoin and $ 219 million in the crypto markets in the past 24 hours.
Blogger 52skew on Monday summarized what happened during the $ 60,000 retest on Twitter.
“The market is hungry for liquidity, the buying and selling pressure is easing. Shows that most market participants are waiting for confirmation or hedging. The liquidation is thin so the question is, which side will run this week? “.
The source: 52skew
Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has yet to beat its all-time high before falling on November 10th.
Focus on US dollars
Corona precautions and protests continue to cause turmoil in the macro markets.
With inflation always a hot topic, the discussion now revolves around whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will accelerate the contraction of its buying policy over the next month.
Jason Schenker, President and Chief Economist of forecasting firm Prestige Economics:
“If this idea comes up and is emphasized again and again, the probability increases that a shrinking decision will be announced more quickly in December than in early November.”
However, the US dollar is stealing the limelight this week.
The greenback broke long-term active resistance this month and hit its strongest level since July 2020 according to the US dollar currency index (DXY).
Usually, a significantly increased DXY for Bitcoin has the opposite effect – the crypto king often has to fight in such times. November was no exception as DXY swaps shot up to hit 96.
Candlestick chart DXY 1 day | Source: TradingView
Analyst Helene Meisler warned at the weekend:
“What’s the problem? Psychology stands still.”
The source: Helene Meisler
DXY’s sudden fallback will help market participants test the inverse correlation with BTC.
Psychology advises “wait and see”
With regard to sentiment in the crypto market, investors cannot make a decision.
The latest data from the Fear and Greed Index shows that despite the short-term price behavior, the market is actually completely neutral.
The fear and greed index is 50/100 exactly in the middle of its value range, which indicates the lack of an “extreme” mentality.
This could speak in favor of Bitcoin, as last week’s shakeout sent sentiment back into “fear” and recovered from there.
Fear and Greed Index | Source: alternative.me
In contrast to the fear and greed index of traditional markets, “extreme greed” characterizes the “greed” at the previous close of trading and is still only “greedy”.
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According to Cointelegraph