Since indicators paint a “unique picture”, Bitcoin price is moving in this direction

After Bitcoin fell below $ 60,000 for the first time on Nov. 16, social media was flooded with chants of “buy the dip” in anticipation of a higher recovery. However, the price fell from a high of $ 66.281 to a low of $ 55,641 in just one week. This panicked the market.

BTC price 4-hour chart | Source: Tradingview

Is fear dominating the market?

Against the background of pessimistic market sentiment after a further decline on November 23, sentiment also gradually turned negative, while spot prices contrasted with the positive signals from the indicators. According to the Fear & Greed Index, the mood shifts proportionally to the spot market and records “fear” for the day.

Notably, the current decline is 13 days (as of press) and is 19% lower than ATH. Interestingly, this reduction is not significant compared to the previous ones.

Bitcoin drop length | The source: Ecoinometry

In fact, there have been several other declines in the current cycle that have fallen in the same range as this one. The March drop lasted a month and hit a low of around 18%, while the February drop lasted 18 days and hit a low of around 25%. Overall, they did not have a major impact on the participants. At the moment, not only the price action but also the metrics are a confusing market situation.

Strange deviation

Data from Glassnode shows the number of long-term BTC HODLers at a multi-year high. The market may still not be saturated with profit taking as this group appears to be reducing their spending while continuing to increase their positions.

The Volume Spent Age Range (SVAB) analyzes sentiment and trends by determining when to start taking profit or accumulating. It is noteworthy that the constant issuance of coins held for more than 1 month (> 5% of the daily BTC on-chain volume) began in November 2020 and ended from April to May 2021. .

After bottoming around $ 30,000, SVAB soared as the price hit $ 40,000 in August and over $ 60,000 in October, as shown in the chart below.

SVAB Bitcoin | The source: Glass knot

Since then, the SVAB value has dropped to 2.5% of the daily volume, suggesting that older coins are becoming increasingly immobile as prices decline. This means that long-term HODLers are reducing their spending and are more likely to add to positions.

Additionally, the total supply held by STH is at a multi-year low (below 3 million BTC), which means that LTH supply is at a multi-year high.

Complete range of STH | The source: Glass knot

The above dates usually appear at the end of bear markets and at the beginning of bull markets, after long periods of accumulation. However, this is the only case where the price is near ATH and the supply of LTH is also at ATH. This signals interesting moves in the future BTC price.

Although volatility has decreased, the monthly closing retest continues as the coin retests $ 58,700 on the monthly chart as support. So it looks like BTC will continue to fluctuate before the end of the month and December will (or maybe not) bring new highs. For now, however, the long-term outlook looks good as the price has tested near $ 55,000 at the time of going to press.

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