Assess the possibility that Bitcoin will hit ATH in the next few weeks

The cryptocurrency market has been looking very boring lately. With Bitcoin hovering around $ 57,000, the fear and greed index shows the mood of fear.

Meanwhile, analyst TechDev predicts a mid-cycle rebound after examining similarities from previous bull market cycles.

“In all three BTC cycles, the price bounced off the 1.272 line into the ‘mid-cycle’. Then … 2013 encountered resistance at 1.55. 2017 will face resistance at 1.618. 2021 faces both. After this process, the excitement changes significantly. “

The source: TechDev

Can Bitcoin Bulls Overcome Depression?

JP Morgan analysts had previously forecast “increased bond yields and ultimately a normalization of monetary policy” that could push the price of Bitcoin down. This is comparable to the impact on gold in a similar macro-environment.

However, let’s not forget that the top bank also made a long-term Bitcoin price prediction of $ 146,000. Meanwhile, a JP Morgan analyst claims that a target price of $ 73,000 seems “appropriate” in the short term.

However, Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon continues to maintain his opposition to the cryptocurrency sector. In a recent event, he said that “cryptocurrency” has no intrinsic value and cannot be viewed as “currency”. Previously, Dimon also commented that Bitcoin was “worthless”. He describes this asset class as speculative and emphasizes:

“It’s hysteria.”

Support from institutional investors

Meanwhile, a majority of investors are not concerned about short-term gains. report The latest weekly flow from CoinShares shows that despite Bitcoin’s 12% correction, last week’s inflows peaked at $ 114 million, suggesting that the majority of investments are flowing into Bitcoin. Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, also believes Bitcoin has strong institutional support.

“What we didn’t expect when doing our own research on Bitcoin was that institutions, mostly corporations, began to diversify their cash on balance sheet for Bitcoin.”

Citigroup has also entered the field with famous names such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Bank of America. And it’s not just the big banks, because according to the latest reports, the financial services provider Stripe (which had previously discontinued Bitcoin support) could reconsider after the new developments.

In the meantime, it’s important to note that the number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses has hit a new all-time high (38.76 million addresses).

Number of Bitcoin addresses with balances other than 0 | The source: Glass knot

KOL Anthony Pompliano stated in a Podcasts recently that there are now almost 10 million wallets, including small Bitcoin investors with at least 0.01 BTC.

With that, Arcane Research stated that it is uncertain “whether $ 69,000 will mark the climax of this bull run,” while other analysts expect BTC price to take interesting turns in the future.

Will Bitcoin Reach a New ATH?

At the macro level, the Bitcoin market is still in a bullish state. This is likely why the market held gains after two weeks of falling.

As profit-taking activity increases, so does the likelihood of establishing a macro-top. Since the last macro peak is the newest ATH, it is conceivable that the next peak will be the next ATH.

Real profit and exercise price of STH | The source: Glass knot

However, as soon as Bitcoin’s chart formed the first red candle after ATH, the Short-Term Holders (STH) took profits and sold themselves. STH’s spending volume (SOPR) soared due to massive profit-taking.

SOPR from STH Bitcoin | The source: Glass knot

However, instead of falling to 1, the SOPR STH indicator continues to drop below 1. Usually this is a sign of a trend reversal in a bull market and when the SOPR rises back to 1 or higher they do. We can hope for ATH.

If it persists in this area for a long time, the fear of a bear market could materialize.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s presence in a bull / bear transition zone when only 85-90% of the supply is profitable is also a concern.

Profitable Bitcoin Supply | The source: Glass knot

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin still has a chance to drop to $ 50,000 due to market behavior. But if it does, it might not be until the next 72 hours. Otherwise the market will rebound unless it falls into an absolute pullback.

In addition, STH is currently actively accumulating at the macro level and momentum is building towards HODL. Accordingly, the price can rise again. Hence, we will most likely see BTC hit a new ATH within the next week or two.

Bitcoins STH supply | The source: Glass knot

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