Is Litecoin likely to see an explosive rally in 2022?

Litecoin (LTC) shows signs of an impending rally in 2022, simulating the uptrends seen in November 2013, when the price rose from $ 5 to $ 63 for a few weeks. In December 2017, the LTC price jumped from $ 50 to $ 369 amid a surge in demand.

The latest on-chain indicators point to a general upward trend. The number of active addresses has experienced a parabolic upward trend since December 2020, which seems to correlate with the upward trend from USD 129.94 on December 31, 2020 to USD 377.69 on 12/5/2021.

The source: Kraken Intelligence, coin metrics

The number of active addresses has recently increased significantly, similar to April 2021. The 7-day moving average (MA) shows an increase in the number of active addresses on 10/10/2021.

This is comparable to when the number of active addresses hit 16,961 on April 8, 2013, when the LTC price was $ 4.50. On December 11, 2013 this indicator rose to 18,322. Then the price rose to $ 95 on 11/28/2013. The 7-day MA of active addresses peaked on May 16, 2017, then the LTC price rose from $ 23.5 to $ 369 on December 17, 2017.

Other indicators such as the Reserve Risk Ratio and LTC’s Z-MVRV Score paint a different picture and show that Litecoin is oversold, not overbought.

Overbought states indicate that there has been a significant and consistent uptrend with minimal pullbacks. An oversold condition is one in which the coin price is continuously falling with minimal correction. There have been two instances where the reserve risk indicated an overbought position and then a rally. Currently, the reserve risk is below 0.003, indicating oversold conditions.

Source: Kraken Intelligence, Coin Metrics

The Z-MVRV is an indicator that measures the likelihood of undervaluation or overvaluation in relation to its fair market value over time. Z-MVRV is currently above 2 and must reach 7 to be considered overbought.

Source: Kraken Intelligence, Coin Metrics

A brief overview of Litecoin’s price behavior over the years

Historically, 2016 was the least volatile year for the Litecoin price, which rose only 27% and ended the year at $ 4.36. 2017 was the fastest-growing year in Litecoin price history, with bullish candlesticks being produced almost monthly. At the end of the year it was up 5.451%. In 2018, Litecoin saw a monthly decline, slipping to $ 30.62 by the end of the year. 2019 hit a high of $ 146.95 but ultimately only a 33.7% increase over the previous year.

At the time of writing, LTC is trading at $ 200, up over 5% over the past 24 hours. Even so, it’s more than 50% below the all-time high of $ 412 on May 10, 2021.

The market capitalization of the 16th cryptocurrency is currently around 13.8 billion US dollars with a trading volume of 1.6 billion US dollars.

LTC price chart | Source: Tradingview

Litecoin was created in 2011 as a fork of Bitcoin. Similar to Bitcoin, Litecoin is deflationary, with a maximum of 84 million coins that can be minted. It has a faster block time of 2.5 minutes compared to Bitcoin’s 10 minutes. LTC has a less complicated validation method than BTC, but it also uses Proof of Work (PoW).

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