On-chain data shows Bitcoin could fall to $ 28,000

Bitcoin continues to get stuck in its current range. The benchmark cryptocurrency has not shown any clear momentum. This could lead to some weakness and give the bears an opportunity to attack. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $ 33,508 with a sideways movement on the chart.

Hourly BTC / USDT Chart | Source: TradingView

Pseudonym analyst “Coin Casanova” has synthetic On-chain data shows that Bitcoin shows more signs of weakness during higher periods of time. Similar to many traders and investors, Casanova believes that some on-chain experts have shared their analysis calling for a bottom for BTC but not being able to do the same when there is a “top” signal .

The analyst claims that Bitcoin is very weak and could be pushed down by any significant increase in selling pressure. With the first goal, Casanova believes Bitcoin can fall below the annual opening and hit $ 28,000.

In the higher time frames, the analyst recommends keeping a close eye on the number of short-term holders using Glassnode’s Bitcoin Realized Cap HOLD Waves. If the index rises by 80%, the BTC price will experience a longer decline or a long period of accumulation. The analyst added:

“(…) For short-term holders whose realized Cap HOLD waves had previously reached over 80%, I believe that Bitcoin needs this indicator in order to completely fall and return to the 20% area.”

Source: Glassnode via Coin Casanova

If the same metric is applied to long-term owners, the analyst is optimistic that bitcoin whales will start piling up again. However, it will take some time for the rise of this index to affect the market (see below). In the meantime, the BTC price could continue to fall.

“(…) For long-term owners: The index has finally created an upward curve showing that whales are piling up, but obviously this will not significantly affect the market until the index returns to the 50% range.”

Source: Glassnode via Coin Casanova

Bitcoin whales are selling and institutions are not absorbing it

Casanova claims that Bitfinex whales played a key role in BTC’s recent promotions. While some analysts are using on-chain activity as a boost in addresses to back up their bullish narrative, this metric could also indicate that large investors have been more active in recent months.

China’s crackdown on the BTC mining sector and the cryptocurrency industry has had consequences. Whales moved their funds, increasing selling pressure in the market and affecting Bitcoin’s performance, as shown below.

Source: Glassnode via Coin Casanova

Eventually, institutions could stop buying more BTC. Many experts believe that Casanova is exaggerating its influence on the current price action. A pro-bitcoin announcement was made by traditional giants like the George Soros Investment Fund, but that wasn’t enough to fuel a sustained rally.

Since the crash in May, the level of institutional participation in the crypto market has remained “almost unchanged,” said the analyst.

6 / “Buy institutions”
Yes OK. Not enough brother. Not enough.
Flat af since the drop. pic.twitter.com/YkBGODEhG8

– Coin Casanova (3.3) (@coin_casanova) July 9, 2021

“Bitcoin is going through one of the strangest times since its inception when big players are having to breathe back to fuel BTC’s journey. For now, the benchmark cryptocurrency will likely stay in its current range. “

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

SN_Nour

According to Newsbtc

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