Bitcoin fails to regain $ 50,000 and is showing a bearish signal

Bitcoin price failed to recover and recorded further losses across the board. This could cause even more trouble for the cops.

Options market analysis

Bitcoin price is currently trading at around $ 48,000, roughly 27% below ATH ($ 69,000). Options traders have implemented various hedging strategies over the past few weeks to protect their accounts against market declines. This coming Friday, December 17th, Bitcoin option contracts worth approximately $ 630 million will expire at Deribit. The worst case scenario for this expiry is if the price stays below $ 50,000. The call option at an exercise price of 60,000 has the highest open interest with 1005 contracts. Options traders have now sold many call options at this strike price. You seem to be viewing 60k as resistance at the moment.

Source: Deribit

The realized volatility is still higher than the implied volatility. It appears that options traders are still unsure of the V-shaped recovery.

Source: Laevitas.ch

The change in the TOP Open Interest (OI) for 48 hours shows that the demand for put options increased in December.

Source: Laevitas.ch

Technical analysis

The weekly RSI shows no positive signals in the medium term. It has fallen below 50, which shows that bears are stronger in the market. According to historical data, whenever the index falls below 50, BTC sees a downtrend or a phase of consolidation.

The hope is that this index will recover and return to the 50 line.

Weekly BTC / USDT Chart | Source: TradingView

Things are not looking good on the daily chart either. The long-term upward trend line formed since the Covid crash in March 2020 has been lost. The OBV indicator shows a similar signal as the crash in May: Uncertainties in the financial markets due to high inflation rates in the USA and Europe could cause some volatility in the coming weeks.

BTC / USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

On-chain analysis

The SOPR of the short-term holders (Spend Output Profit Ratio, which measures the total market profit and loss for each trade) shows that these investors are selling at a loss. This is a sign of fear for high-end buyers, who tend to be sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

Source: CryptoQuant

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