Only one miracle can Bitcoin help hit $ 100,000 this year on the S2F model

Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $ 51,506, up more than 5% in the past 24 hours. This is the highest since December 7, and rebounded 22% from a local low of around $ 42,000.

Source: BILLIONSradingview

Almost all of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are in the green, with SUSHI leading a market rally of 23.74% and the decentralized financial sector outperforming the rest of the market. Aave (AAVE), Compound (COMP) and Uniswap (UNI) also posted double-digit growth.

Accordingly, traders hope that the “Santa Claus rally”, a remarkable effect, can drive the Bitcoin price higher by the end of the year.

The term was coined by US stock market traders in the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1972. Over the past 92 years, the benchmark S&P 500 posted a 77% win rate over this period. The 9-day trading period includes the last trading session of the year and two trading sessions in January.

Historically, Bitcoin has lagged the US stock market during the above nine-day period. This is why the likelihood of a Santa Claus rally is much greater with stocks than with Bitcoin. However, if the leading cryptocurrency continues its strong recovery, this year is likely to make all the difference.

On the flip side, Mike Novogratz said that due to the bearish sentiment in the stock market, he doesn’t expect Bitcoin to rise in the first quarter of 2022.

Bitcoin will have to gain another 11% in the remaining 6 days to end December in the green.

S2F and Christmas Price Target $ 100,000

The crypto community is nervously watching PlanB’s stock-to-flow model as it predicts that Bitcoin will hit $ 100,000 by Christmas this year. Less than 24 hours remain, however, and investors and analysts alike are now wondering how the model will work.

For its part, PlanB admits that Bitcoin needs a “small miracle” to hit $ 100,000 by Christmas. Even so, the analyst made it clear that he hasn’t given up on S2F yet.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1472241754837557256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener
“Bitcoin needs a little miracle to hit $ 100,000 by Christmas. If it doesn’t happen, will I drop the S2F model? No, I really like the lower bands. In fact, I posted the pattern in March 2019 in the lower bands with BTC below $ 4,000. “

That’s a far cry from PlanB’s summer comment when he did Arguments will consider S2F as “zero” if Bitcoin does not reach $ 100,000 by December or December 31st.

When PlanB introduced this change in analysis, other experts wondered what the right approach was really.

For example, famous on-chain analyst Willy Woo shown that Plan B isn’t the one who decides when to disable S2F – even if he is the one who created it.

Blockstream co-founder Adam Back, comment The model depends on the inputs and can go wrong even if it ends up being correct.

“He’s contradicting himself. It’s just a model. People get cautious. Such a model cannot be 100% accurate because the inputs are variable and unpredictable. Macro reasons can make it fail. ”

The pattern began to deviate in November when Bitcoin failed to hit its target of $ 98,000 that month. However, this level is connected to the PlanB floor model. Lots of investors are concerned, but PlanB confirms that S2F is still in the works. About the floor model, he to explain:

“… I see it as a breakup and maybe a V-recovery afterwards. If this does not happen, we will also miss the December rate, and accordingly the floor pattern is no longer accurate. But with one pattern, I think that’s a good point and the pattern won’t break just because of the first deviation. ”

However, the price continued to plummet into December and it remains to be seen whether the floor pattern loses its target this month.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $ 50,837. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index reaches 34, which signals a fearful mood.

Regardless of what analysts say about S2F Bitcoin moving further and further away from its creators, thousands of investors are sure to pursue PlanB’s December target and into the future.

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