On-chain analysis: A whale transferred a lot of BTC to the exchange on July 17th

Take a look at Bitcoin’s on-chain (BTC) indicators, more specifically the Real Profit / Loss (NRPL) indicator, to gauge the current market situation and identify the reason for the July 17th increase in the index.

The NRPL rose significantly on July 17th. If one looks at the supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index, this occurs when coins that have been held for a longer period of time are sold out.

Actual profit and loss

The Actual Net Profit / Loss indicator shows the net value of all trades in the market for a given day. If the coin moves at a lower price than its last UTXO, an actual loss will be recorded. If it is transferred at a higher price, the actual profit is recognized.

Therefore, to determine the overall state of the market, we subtract actual profit from actual loss.

The market has largely seen a net loss since May 13th. This peaked on June 25th when it recorded an actual net loss of $ 3.456 billion.

The trend appears to have reversed on July 17th when it posted actual net income of $ 1,416 billion. With the price unchanged from last week at $ 31,548, the BTC shifted that day could hold up from 2020 if the price is below $ 30,000 or if BTC is bought at its lowest annual low, June 22nd or 26th .

Source: Glass knot

The change of the NRPL indicator from positive to negative and vice versa is a sign of an indefinite trend. The same was seen for much of 2018 as the indicator moved above and below the zero line multiple times before a final crash.

Source: Glass knot

In contrast, the NRPL has a large positive reading and has been consistently positive throughout the bull runs as seen during an uptrend that began in March 2020 and reached an all-time high in April 2021.

Source: Glass knot

What caused the July 17th surge?

We showed in the previous section that the July 17th NRPL spike was caused by long-term owners or by institutions buying on the June low.

A look at Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) shows that the surge was due to long-term holders. CDD is an on-chain indicator that measures the number of days a coin has not spent before a transaction.

A high value therefore indicates that a coin that has been in storage for a very long time has finally moved.

On July 17, CDD hit 4.22, more than double its high for the year of 1.90. This shows that the sale was made over long-time coins.

Source: Glass knot

This can also be seen in the net inflow / outflow volume of the exchange. Here is another on-chain indicator that showed an increase on July 17th.

This suggests that a long-term owner moved their BTC to an exchange and then liquidated it immediately, as evidenced by the surge in NRPL and CDD.

Source: Glass knot

However, this may be a person who does not represent the sentiments of the majority of long term owners or whales.

Since the beginning of May, accounts between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been steadily piling up, which shows a growing trust of the whales.

Source: Twitter

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