Bitcoin (BTC) is starting 2022 on a loss, posting its worst January performance since 2018, when the price fell 26.61%, according to Cointelegraph. communication Coinglass on-chain analysis.
Now all eyes are on February, which has historically been favorable to bulls. The only two negative deals in February were 2020 and 2014.
A positive sign during the recent decline is that long-term buyers are not panicking. Glassnode data shows The number of coins last moved five to seven years ago has risen to a new all-time high.
The President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, did suspect about a “huge win” for Bitcoin. Bukele’s prediction is based on the fact that if the world’s more than 50 million millionaires wanted to buy at least one bitcoin, there would not be enough supply to meet that demand.
Can Bitcoin and the Big Altcoins Start the Month With a Strong Rally? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin has been caught in a strong downtrend for the past few months. In a falling market, the mentality is to sell on a rise rather than buy on a fall as traders will earn more coins.
BTC/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
The first sign of a change in sentiment will be a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA ($39,318). Such a move would suggest that demand is outstripping supply near the 20-day EMA resistance. After that, the BTC/USDT pair can rally to the 50-day SMA ($43,791).
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current levels or the 20-day EMA, it will show that the bears will defend this level aggressively. After that, the pair can drop to $35,507.01. If this support breaks, selling may surge and the price could retest the January 24th low of $32,917.17.
This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it gives way, the pair can drop to the strong support at $30,000.
Ether (ETH) is facing resistance near the breakdown at $2,652, but a small positive is that the bulls still have a lot of ground to give up. This shows that traders are buying on the downside as seen in the long tail of the January 31st bar.
ETH/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
Now the bulls will make another attempt to push the price above $2,652 and the critical resistance at the 20-day EMA ($2.802). If they are successful, it suggests that selling pressure might be eased. The bulls will then recover and attempt to push the pair to the channel’s resistance line.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current levels or the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to drag the ETH/USDT pair towards the $2,300 – $2,159 support area. The bears need to sink the price below this zone and sustain it to open the way for a drop to $1,700.
Binance Coin (BNB) was back inside the channel on Jan. 25, but the rally stalled near $400. This shows that the bears are not giving up and are selling on the rallies.
Daily BNB/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView
If the bears turn down and sustain the rate below the channel, the BNB/USDT pair may retest the critical $330 – $320 support area. The moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in negative territory. shows that the seller is holding the edge.
The pair can plummet to $250 if the $320 support gives way as some traders are likely to panic and exit. This bearish view will be invalidated in the short-term on a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA. After that, the pair can rise to the resistance line of the channel.
The failure of the bulls to secure a clear bounce off the $1 psychological support suggests a lack of active buying from this level. Now the bears will try to build to their advantage and sink Cardano (ADA) below $1.
Daily ADA/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView
Both the moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, showing that the bears are in charge. A break and close below $1 could signal the start of the next phase of the downtrend.
First, the ADA/USDT pair can drop to $0.80 and then the channel support line. The bulls need to push and hold the price above the channel’s resistance line to signal a trend reversal.
Solana (SOL) has been consolidating in a tight range between $80.83 and $104.82 for the past few days. The bulls tried to push the price above the range but failed and now the bears will try to seize the opportunity and drag the altcoin below $80.83.
Daily SOL/USDT chart | Source: TradingView
If successful, the SOL/USDT pair can continue its downtrend. First, the pair could drop to the channel’s support line, where the bulls can attempt to capitalize on the downside. If they are unsuccessful in their attempt, the pair can drop to $66.03.
On the other hand, if the price recovers from $80.83, the pair can add a few more days to its stay in the range. Buyers can gain strength if they push and hold the pair above a breakout of $116.
Ripple (XRP) has been consolidating in a range of $0.54 to $0.65 for the past few days. After failing to break the resistance, the price might now drop to the range support.
XRP/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
The sloping moving averages and the RSI in the oversold territory indicate an advantage for the bears. The key downside level to watch is $0.54 because if it breaks, the XRP/USDT pair can drop to $0.50.
This level is likely to act as strong support so a break and close below could result in panic selling. On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.66) will be the first sign of a reversal in the bulls.
Terra (LUNA) is struggling to sustain a bounce above the descending channel support line. This shows that sentiment is bearish and demand is drying up at higher levels.
Daily LUNA/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView
If the bounce fails to sustain higher levels, sellers could sniff an opportunity and attempt to sink the LUNA/USDT pair below the channel. If successful, the pair can drop to $37.50 which can act as a strong support.
If the current upleg holds, the bulls will attempt to initiate a recovery rally that can reach the 20-day EMA ($63). If the price turns down from this resistance, the pair can revisit $37.50. Alternatively, if the bulls push the pair above the 20-day EMA, the rally can reach the downtrend line of the channel.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been consolidating in a range of $0.13 to $0.15 for the past few days. This shows that the bulls are buying near the support area but failed to push the price above the overhead resistance.
Daily DOGE/USDT chart | Source: TradingView
On a small upside, the RSI has formed a bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing. However, if the buyers fail to push the price above $0.15, the bears may regroup and make another attempt to drag the DOGE/USDT pair below the support.
A close below $0.13 could lead to more selling and take the pair to the psychological $0.10 level. The bulls need to push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.16) to avoid the near-term bearish threat.
Polkadot (DOT)’s weak rebound from strong support at $16.81 shows a lack of buying at current levels. The sloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
DOT/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
If the bears turn down and sustain the price below the $16.81 – $15.83 support area, it will show that the downtrend has resumed. After that, the DOT/USDT pair can drop to the strong support at $10.37.
Contrary to this assumption, the bulls will make another attempt to push the pair above the 20-day EMA ($20.98) if the price scales up from the current levels. If successful, the pair can rally to a breakout of $22.66 where the bears can pose a major challenge.
Avalanche (AVAX) is facing stiff resistance on a breakdown of $75.50, showing that sentiment remains negative and the bears are selling on the rally. The moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, showing that the bears have the upper hand.
AVAX/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
Sellers will now attempt to sink the price below the next support at $61.06. If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair can drop into the strong support area at $51.04 – $47.66. The bulls are likely to defend this zone aggressively.
A strong bounce from the support zone might shed some light on the prospect of a bottom formation with the price stuck between $47.66 and $75.50 for a few more days.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $75.50. Alternatively, a drop below $47.66 could signal the continuation of the downtrend.
HAPPY NEW YEAR! Wishing all the Bitcoin Magazine benevolent brothers a Happy New Year full of health, happiness and prosperity, trade everywhere, hodl everywhere xxx. Thanks very much!
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