After rejecting a bounce from Bitcoin at $45,000, the recent price action turned bearish, with the key price range seen at $38,000-$39,000.
The uncertainty and low liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has created a period of volatility that correlates with the global market. Fundamentals like the Ukraine-Russia conflict are impacting both the crypto and global markets.
After the disappointing weekly candle, this week’s close is crucial as it will reveal whether the price is holding a key support level or not.
Long term
On Thursday, February 17, Bitcoin fell below the key moving averages – the 50- and 20-day MAs – suggesting that the bears are not giving up and are selling on rallies to exit the market.
Furthermore, the price has not made a higher high during the intraday period, which is imperative for a reversal scenario. BTC is currently trading above the $38-39k support area along with the ascending support line (yellow), so we can expect two possible scenarios at the moment.
BTC/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
Bitcoin has been falling since forming a double top on the 4-hour timeframe (see below). As mentioned above, the price is still trading above the $38,000-$39.2,000 support area as well as the ascending support line (yellow line).
A likely scenario is a break below the mentioned support followed by a lower price confirming a double top. On the downside, however, Bitcoin is likely to retest the $45,000 region if current support holds.
BTC/USDT 4 hour chart | Source: TradingView
The sharp rise to $45,000 has restored optimism in the market. As a result, FOMO has prompted many speculators to enter heavily leveraged long positions.
After that, the price was rejected again at $45,000 and has quickly fallen 12% from the high. This has also resulted in many long orders being liquidated.
In addition to the major liquidation event, based on price action, many technical analysts have identified the $41,000 – $42,000 zone as support, meaning many stops have been placed below this level. Consequently, when BTC fell below this level, a wave of stop losses was triggered, adding to the selling pressure.
Source: CryptoQuant
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