This prediction market tracks gpt-6 released by…? based on live Polymarket odds. Traders currently price No as the leading outcome at 69%, with $1.4M in volume and 0 days remaining.
Live Odds
| Outcome | Probability | Price | Volume | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | $0.32 | $1.4M | Live |
| No | 69% | $0.69 | $1.4M | Live |
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What does this Tech prediction market measure?
This market measures the probability traders assign to the listed outcomes for GPT-6 released by…?. Prices are shown as market-implied odds and can move as new information, volume, and liquidity enter the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
The market resolves according to the criteria published by Polymarket. Coincu republishes the data for research and news context; it does not operate the market or execute trades.
What could move this market?
Major headlines can quickly move prediction market probabilities.
Thin markets can move sharply on smaller trades, so volume matters.
Markets with clear resolution criteria are usually easier to interpret.
Probabilities often compress as the end date approaches.
Market Stats
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Historical Context
Prediction markets are useful because they compress many competing views into a live probability. For crypto markets, those views often combine price momentum, macro policy, exchange liquidity, ETF flows, and on-chain activity.
For Bitcoin-linked markets, key historical reference points include previous cycle highs, the post-halving window, institutional demand, and periods when liquidity conditions changed quickly.
FAQ
What is the current probability for Yes?
The current market-implied probability for Yes is about 32%, based on the latest available Polymarket odds shown on Coincu.
How does this Polymarket prediction market work?
Prediction market prices are commonly interpreted as market-implied probabilities. A price near $0.42 suggests traders are pricing that outcome near 42%, before fees and liquidity effects.
Is this the same as a price forecast?
No. It is a prediction market price, not Coincu's forecast or investment advice. Odds can move quickly as traders react to news, liquidity, and market conditions.
When does this market end?
The listed end date is December 31, 2025. Final settlement depends on the resolution criteria published by Polymarket for this market.
Where does Coincu get the data?
Coincu displays market data from Polymarket APIs and embeds. Data can be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party API limits.
Methodology and Disclaimer
Odds reflect market-implied probabilities derived from prediction market prices. Data source: Polymarket Gamma API, Polymarket CLOB API, and official Polymarket embeds where available.
Market odds are not investment advice. Coincu does not operate this market. Data may be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party service limits.