This prediction market tracks israel closes its airspace by...? based on live Polymarket odds. Traders currently price No as the leading outcome at 95%, with $27.3M in volume and 0 days remaining.
Live Odds
| Outcome | Probability | Price | Volume | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | $0.05 | $27.3M | Live |
| No | 95% | $0.95 | $27.3M | Live |
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What does this Politics prediction market measure?
This market measures the probability traders assign to the listed outcomes for Israel closes its airspace by...?. Prices are shown as market-implied odds and can move as new information, volume, and liquidity enter the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market resolves according to the criteria published by Polymarket. Coincu republishes the data for research and news context; it does not operate the market or execute trades.
What could move this market?
Major headlines can quickly move prediction market probabilities.
Thin markets can move sharply on smaller trades, so volume matters.
Markets with clear resolution criteria are usually easier to interpret.
Probabilities often compress as the end date approaches.
Market Stats
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Historical Context
Prediction markets are useful because they compress many competing views into a live probability. For crypto markets, those views often combine price momentum, macro policy, exchange liquidity, ETF flows, and on-chain activity.
For Bitcoin-linked markets, key historical reference points include previous cycle highs, the post-halving window, institutional demand, and periods when liquidity conditions changed quickly.
FAQ
What is the current probability for Yes?
The current market-implied probability for Yes is about 5%, based on the latest available Polymarket odds shown on Coincu.
How does this Polymarket prediction market work?
Prediction market prices are commonly interpreted as market-implied probabilities. A price near $0.42 suggests traders are pricing that outcome near 42%, before fees and liquidity effects.
Is this the same as a price forecast?
No. It is a prediction market price, not Coincu's forecast or investment advice. Odds can move quickly as traders react to news, liquidity, and market conditions.
When does this market end?
The listed end date is May 31, 2026. Final settlement depends on the resolution criteria published by Polymarket for this market.
Where does Coincu get the data?
Coincu displays market data from Polymarket APIs and embeds. Data can be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party API limits.
Methodology and Disclaimer
Odds reflect market-implied probabilities derived from prediction market prices. Data source: Polymarket Gamma API, Polymarket CLOB API, and official Polymarket embeds where available.
Market odds are not investment advice. Coincu does not operate this market. Data may be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party service limits.