This prediction market tracks satoshi's identity be proven by...? based on live Polymarket odds. Traders currently price No as the leading outcome at 97%, with $2.0M in volume and 135 days remaining.
Live Odds
| Outcome | Probability | Price | Volume | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | $0.03 | $2.0M | Live |
| No | 97% | $0.97 | $2.0M | Live |
Company markets
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What does this Crypto prediction market measure?
This market measures the probability traders assign to the listed outcomes for Satoshi's identity be proven by...?. Prices are shown as market-implied odds and can move as new information, volume, and liquidity enter the market.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
The market resolves according to the criteria published by Polymarket. Coincu republishes the data for research and news context; it does not operate the market or execute trades.
What could move this market?
Crypto liquidity conditions can move probability prices across related markets.
Listings, delistings, and derivatives demand can change sentiment.
Policy updates can change trader expectations around crypto outcomes.
Network activity, fees, and large-wallet flows add context beyond headline odds.
Market Stats
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Historical Context
Prediction markets are useful because they compress many competing views into a live probability. For crypto markets, those views often combine price momentum, macro policy, exchange liquidity, ETF flows, and on-chain activity.
For Bitcoin-linked markets, key historical reference points include previous cycle highs, the post-halving window, institutional demand, and periods when liquidity conditions changed quickly.
FAQ
What is the current probability for Yes?
The current market-implied probability for Yes is about 3%, based on the latest available Polymarket odds shown on Coincu.
How does this Polymarket prediction market work?
Prediction market prices are commonly interpreted as market-implied probabilities. A price near $0.42 suggests traders are pricing that outcome near 42%, before fees and liquidity effects.
Is this the same as a price forecast?
No. It is a prediction market price, not Coincu's forecast or investment advice. Odds can move quickly as traders react to news, liquidity, and market conditions.
When does this market end?
The listed end date is December 31, 2026. Final settlement depends on the resolution criteria published by Polymarket for this market.
Where does Coincu get the data?
Coincu displays market data from Polymarket APIs and embeds. Data can be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party API limits.
Methodology and Disclaimer
Odds reflect market-implied probabilities derived from prediction market prices. Data source: Polymarket Gamma API, Polymarket CLOB API, and official Polymarket embeds where available.
Market odds are not investment advice. Coincu does not operate this market. Data may be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party service limits.