This prediction market tracks us obtains iranian enriched uranium by...? based on live Polymarket odds. Traders currently price No as the leading outcome at 94%, with $29.1M in volume and 135 days remaining.
Live Odds
| Outcome | Probability | Price | Volume | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | $0.07 | $29.1M | Live |
| No | 94% | $0.94 | $29.1M | Live |
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What does this Politics prediction market measure?
This market measures the probability traders assign to the listed outcomes for US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?. Prices are shown as market-implied odds and can move as new information, volume, and liquidity enter the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market resolves according to the criteria published by Polymarket. Coincu republishes the data for research and news context; it does not operate the market or execute trades.
What could move this market?
Major headlines can quickly move prediction market probabilities.
Thin markets can move sharply on smaller trades, so volume matters.
Markets with clear resolution criteria are usually easier to interpret.
Probabilities often compress as the end date approaches.
Market Stats
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Historical Context
Prediction markets are useful because they compress many competing views into a live probability. For crypto markets, those views often combine price momentum, macro policy, exchange liquidity, ETF flows, and on-chain activity.
For Bitcoin-linked markets, key historical reference points include previous cycle highs, the post-halving window, institutional demand, and periods when liquidity conditions changed quickly.
FAQ
What is the current probability for Yes?
The current market-implied probability for Yes is about 7%, based on the latest available Polymarket odds shown on Coincu.
How does this Polymarket prediction market work?
Prediction market prices are commonly interpreted as market-implied probabilities. A price near $0.42 suggests traders are pricing that outcome near 42%, before fees and liquidity effects.
Is this the same as a price forecast?
No. It is a prediction market price, not Coincu's forecast or investment advice. Odds can move quickly as traders react to news, liquidity, and market conditions.
When does this market end?
The listed end date is December 31, 2026. Final settlement depends on the resolution criteria published by Polymarket for this market.
Where does Coincu get the data?
Coincu displays market data from Polymarket APIs and embeds. Data can be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party API limits.
Methodology and Disclaimer
Odds reflect market-implied probabilities derived from prediction market prices. Data source: Polymarket Gamma API, Polymarket CLOB API, and official Polymarket embeds where available.
Market odds are not investment advice. Coincu does not operate this market. Data may be delayed, unavailable, or affected by third-party service limits.