Drawing parallels to the SPDR Gold ETF launch in 2004, which saw gold’s market value surge from $2 trillion to $10 trillion over eight years, Gurbacs envisions a similar trajectory for spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
Gurbacs highlights the current market value of Bitcoin at approximately $750 billion, underscoring its substantial room for growth compared to gold’s 2004 valuation. Emphasizing the gradual nature of adoption, he anticipates a gradual influx of funds, totaling a few $10 billion, driven by the unique dynamics of Bitcoin’s relatively low float and the impact of halving schedules.
Moreover, Gurbacs predicts that the spot Bitcoin ETF approval will not only legitimize Bitcoin but also destigmatize its role in investment portfolios, fostering broader adoption beyond the ETF space. He envisions nation-states and sovereign wealth funds directly holding Bitcoin, securing optionality for mining and developing Bitcoin-based capital markets.
As Bitcoin surged to a 20-month high, briefly surpassing $44,000, the momentum was fueled by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and the anticipation of regulatory approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs. While the SEC might still decide on crypto ETFs, industry experts project their launch early next year.
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