The 2018 Bitcoin price fractal could catch bulls and push the price to CZK 25,000

The recent price rally in the Bitcoin price market is in danger of being overturned due to a strange fractal from 2018.

Similarities about Bitcoin Price Cycle

Independent market analyst CryptoBullet was the first to spot the fractal, showing Bitcoin replicating an inverse head and shoulders (IH&S) pattern before the price fell to $3,100 in late December 2018. Therefore, he predicts that BTC could see comparable declines in 2022.

This is largely due to the remarkably similar trend between the downtrend lines in 2018 and 2021-2022. For example, Bitcoin made two higher highs around $10,000 in April and May 2018 before falling below $6,000 in July while building an IH&S pattern.

Daily BTC price chart and fractal IH&S since 2018 | Source: TradingView

Interestingly, from October 2021 to February 2022, Bitcoin had an identical price action, hitting two higher highs – near $65,000 in April and $69,000 in November. After that, the price corrected below $33,000 in early February while another IH&S pattern formed.

As the IH&S is a bullish reversal pattern, BTC is currently awaiting a breakout towards or above $50,000. A similar technical setup shared by market analyst Lark Davis predicts Bitcoin above $60,000.

“Bitcoin forming a potential inverse head-and-shoulders ratio with a price target above $60,000. Yes effect if that break the orange line is outside the key resistance area.”

Fractal price bitcoin year In 2018, cops threaten to set a trap

But a move to $50,000 or even $60,000 may not help Bitcoin break out of its current popular downtrend. If the 2018 fractal repeats in 2022, the chances of BTC falling to $25,000 are higher as explained in the chart below.

Weekly BTC Price Chart | Source: TradingView

Notably, the 2018 price action caused Bitcoin to break out after the IH&S formation and reached almost $10,000.

The price briefly recaptured the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, red wave) as support, only to later break below it. Next, the price dropped to the 200-week EMA (green wave) near $3,000 where it bottomed in December 2018.

Applying the same fractal to the current price action, Bitcoin could close above the 50-week EMA and eventually reach the $50,000-$60,000 range. However, it will return below the red wave and extend the decline to the 200-week EMA, located near $25,000.

This negative outlook is consistent with comments made by independent market analyst Ari Rudd divide in a Twitter thread on February 14.

has house card quote The moving averages support and the logarithmic fractal development suggest that the BTC price could drop to the $24,000-$27,000 range in the coming months.

Isn’t this a different 2018?

On the brighter side, Bitcoin now has more bullish fundamentals than it did in 2018. Notably, BTC price has surged from below $4,000 in March 2020 to as high as $69,000 in November 2021 amid increased retail and institutional adoption macroeconomic risks such as escalating inflation.

“Inflation hit 7.5% in January – the highest in four decades. It keeps accelerating. The best way to protect yourself from this silent and damaging tax on your life’s work is Bitcoin.” Cameron Winklevoss tweets.

An editorial written by John Authers of Bloomberg Opinion in November 2021 indicates that headline inflation, the consumer price index (CPI), has risen by about 28% over the past 10 years. Expressing the same measure for Bitcoin results in 99.99% deflation. But a word of caution is also in order.

“If you had invested all your life savings in bitcoin a decade ago, that would be awesome. should you do it now Maybe not.

Over the past 10 years, Bitcoin has seen a lot of deflation, including 76% in the last 12 months alone, but there have also been a few panic attacks where annual inflation has hit over 200%.”

Interestingly, the “terrors” occurred during the 2015 and 2018 retrograde cycles.

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