Bitcoin Reserve Risk Indicator Hits Low: Price Could Reach $12,000

The Reserve Risk indicator, a key technical indicator for the Bitcoin network, has dropped to an all-time low showing that the king coin is less likely to recover in the near term.

Accordingly, the Reserve Risk indicator has dropped to an all-time low according to on-chain analysis from Glassnode.

Reserve Risk is a cyclical indicator that tracks the balance of risk or reward relative to a long-term holder’s trust and confidence.

At current levels, even the oldest holders’ confidence seems to be faltering as it hasn’t fallen to this low since the 2015 bear market. Even during the bear market of 2018 and the speculative events in December, this indicator still has not dropped to the level it is at this time.

This indicator is noted by the famous crypto analyst ‘Murad’ who posted it on July 10:

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have never really experienced a downturn. However, it is possible that it will happen later this month after the negative double-digit GDP of the previous two quarters in the United States is announced.

Another key metric, SOPR, which reflects the de facto profit and loss of all coins circulating on-chain, has also fallen to lows not seen in the past few years. This metric measures the net value recognized divided by the value when generating an output spent. In other words, the selling price is divided by the buying price.

According to the chart, long-term holders are still selling even at a loss, which shows that a speculative phenomenon is taking place.

BTC price is currently still consolidating in a range for the past three weeks or so, oscillating between $18,000 and $22,000, where its actual price, or aggregate cost base of supply, exists.

A major speculative event is likely to cause the price to drop to around $12,000, an 82%+ drop similar to what happened in the previous two bear markets.

This could be catalyzed by a number of negative macroeconomic announcements this month including the US consumer price index (CPI) or inflation, a further Fed rate hike, or the beginning of a recession.

DISCLAIMER: The Information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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