Market Overview (Jan 1 – Jan 7): Bitcoin ETF Prediction and SEC Updates
Key Points
- Last week’s highlights include the completion of document submissions to the SEC, Matrixport Bitcoin ETF Prediction, etc
- In macroeconomics, the FED anticipates three rate cuts in 2024, the US economy shows positive signs, and upcoming events include the release of details about the Bitcoin Spot ETF.
- This week, the release of details about the Bitcoin Spot ETF, a speech by NY Federal Reserve President John Williams, and the release of CPI and PPI data are anticipated.
Discover the Latest News in Cryptocurrency: SEC Updates, Bitcoin ETF Prediction, Michael Saylor’s move, and the growing performance of Solana. and More.
Last week’s highlights big news (Jan 1–Jan 7)
SEC has received all the necessary documents from companies and announced that there are no further questions. This indicates that the submission process is complete, and now we await the SEC’s vote, which is expected to take place this week.
Matrixport believes that the SEC will reject all BTC Spot ETF funds in the coming days. However, they anticipate approval of the deadline applications in the second quarter. Bitcoin ETF Prediction news has had an impact on the price of BTC, which has experienced a significant drop recently.
Michael Saylor, the well-known Bitcoin advocate, has decided to sell 315,000 of his shares (equivalent to USD 216 million) to buy more Bitcoin. This move highlights his continued faith in the future potential of cryptocurrency.
In recent news from Fox Business, it has been reported that the SEC has held discussions with officials from the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and the Chicago Options Exchange. The focus of these meetings was to discuss the much-anticipated Bitcoin Spot ETF.
Solana has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing Ethereum in terms of the highest volume of stablecoin transfers in the past week. This development showcases Solana’s growing prominence and adoption in the crypto space.
Etherscan, a leading blockchain explorer, has acquired Solscan Block Explorer. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing Etherscan’s capabilities and providing a comprehensive blockchain exploration experience.
Grayscale, a prominent digital asset management company, is actively hiring ETF specialists. This suggests their intentions to further explore and potentially expand their offerings in the ETF market.
Unfortunately, Orbit Bridge, an inter-chain bridge protocol, suffered an estimated $81.5 million in damage due to a security breach. Additionally, Radiant Capital lending, a major arbitrum system, was hacked using flash loan methods, resulting in a loss of 1900 ETH.
China has recently tightened its regulation on cryptocurrencies, particularly focusing on the storage of crypto through cold wallets. This move indicates the Chinese government’s commitment to managing and overseeing the crypto market within its jurisdiction.
According to CoinDesk, Goldman Sachs investment bank is in discussions with BlackRock and Grayscale to potentially become an intermediary company for them. This development could have significant implications for the institutional adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies.
Readmore: Bitcoin Spot ETF Explained: All Things You Need To Know!
Macroeconomics (Dec 18 – Dec 24)
The recently released December meeting minutes of the FED shed light on the expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024. While FED officials anticipate three rate cuts, it remains uncertain when these cuts will occur. Here are some key takeaways from the meeting:
- The FED is expected to implement three rate cuts in 2024, each a quarter percentage point reduction.
- The timing of these rate cuts is still uncertain and dependent on economic developments.
- Interest rates are currently at or near the peak of the current cycle, subject to economic fluctuations.
- There has been progress in reducing inflation, indicating a positive trend.
- The dot plot chart reveals expectations of rate cuts over the next three years, projecting rates to decrease to around 2%.
- Most FED members’ forecasts indicate lower rates by the end of 2024. However, it is essential to note that rates could remain high if inflation does not cooperate.
- The FED emphasizes caution and reliance on economic data in making future decisions.
In addition to the meeting minutes, FED Chairman Thomas Barkin, speaking from the Richmond region, expressed confidence in the economy’s trajectory towards a soft landing. However, he also highlighted the possibility of raising interest rates if circumstances deviate from the planned path.
The US economy appears to be doing well, according to the most recent Non-Farm Payroll Report. With 216k additional employment created as opposed to the predicted 168k, job creation exceeded expectations.
The average hourly wage increased by 0.4%, above expectations, while the unemployment rate is currently 3.7%, which is lower than expected. These signs point to a strong labor market and possible expansion of the economy.
Moving on to this week’s big events, details about the much-awaited Bitcoin Spot ETF will be released from Monday through Wednesday, which could affect the cryptocurrency market.
John Williams, the president of the New York Federal Reserve, will discuss monetary policy in a lecture on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks inflation, is released on Thursday, while the Producer Price Index (PPI), which provides broader economic insights, is released on Friday.
Readmore: Bitcoin Spot ETF vs Futures ETF: Differences To Make The Right Investment Choice
Prediction Market Crypto (Dec 18 – Dec 24)
Last week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from $45.8k to $40.8k, a decrease of $5k, before rebounding. This was mainly attributed to unverified news from Matrixport regarding the rejection of Bitcoin ETF, which had a substantial impact on the market.
As a result, the upcoming date of January 10th has become a crucial decision day for the ETF, with the potential to greatly influence the market. Two possible scenarios have been identified:
- Bitcoin ETF Prediction 1 – Approval: if Bitcoin ETF is approved, it is not expected to cause a significant increase in the price of BTC. However, it is anticipated that BTC will bounce back to its previous peak of $45-46k.
- Bitcoin ETF Prediction 2 – Reject: If Bitcoin ETF is not approved, BTC will likely experience a significant drop, estimated to be around $36k or even lower.
In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) has also been making notable progress. The upgrade of Dencun in the first half of 2024 is anticipated to create additional growth momentum for ETH.
This upgrade, known as the Shanghai upgrade (Shapella), which took place on April 13, 2023, has already marked a major milestone for the Ethereum network. Both ETH and the LSD network have witnessed significant growth as a result.
Furthermore, the Inscription trend has gained traction recently, attracting users and drawing attention from bookmakers. The People’s Alliance on Linea, in particular, has generated a large number of FOMO users.
Here are some forecasts on the state of web3 and NFTs in 2024:
The next US presidential election, combined with the market bull run, will bring crypto into the public focus alongside political debates. This will boost interest in searching for crypto/NFT-related content, with NFTs associated with former presidents, like the NFT Trump card, becoming highly sought after.
Addition, NFTs based on Bitcoin will surprise people, with a significant project emerging, similar to the impact of Cryptopunks. The focus on Bitcoin’s upcoming Halving event will further fuel attention towards Bitcoin-based NFTs.
New Layer 1 (L1) blockchain platforms will surprise everyone with significant growth. Non-EVM L1s will dominate in 2024, driven by investors’ profits from the recent Solana pump, while Ethereum (ETH) will maintain considerable strength.
Solana’s ecosystem will continue to mature, with projects from Solana entering the top 5 rankings in 2024. Solana NFTs, similar to the success of Pudgy Penguins, will stand out.
Crypto games will expand beyond expectations, with the first signs of web3 success on mobile platforms. While widespread acceptance may not be immediate, some indie games will attract attention across the industry. By the end of 2024, skepticism about crypto games will significantly decrease, and they will become an accepted segment of the gaming industry.
Platforms like Roblox will gradually embrace web3 technology, or the Fortnite community will experiment with it. However, mainstream adoption and maturity are not expected until 2025, when GTA6 becomes the main trend.
The convergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and blockchain will revolutionize financial services and cybersecurity. AI will play a crucial role in ensuring blockchain security, supporting market analysis, and enabling automated transactions.
Real-world assets (RWA), starting with real estate and commodities, will drive the blockchain economy. In 2024, NFTs will increasingly develop into valuable tools with practical applications.
SocialFi, a combination of social media and decentralized finance, will make a comeback as a major trend. One of these tokens will make a group of people wealthy. Additionally, Decentralized Identity (DID) solutions will revolutionize privacy rights on the blockchain.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
Author
Analysis
Market Overview (Jan 1 – Jan 7): Bitcoin ETF Prediction and SEC Updates
Key Points
- Last week’s highlights include the completion of document submissions to the SEC, Matrixport Bitcoin ETF Prediction, etc
- In macroeconomics, the FED anticipates three rate cuts in 2024, the US economy shows positive signs, and upcoming events include the release of details about the Bitcoin Spot ETF.
- This week, the release of details about the Bitcoin Spot ETF, a speech by NY Federal Reserve President John Williams, and the release of CPI and PPI data are anticipated.
Discover the Latest News in Cryptocurrency: SEC Updates, Bitcoin ETF Prediction, Michael Saylor’s move, and the growing performance of Solana. and More.
Last week’s highlights big news (Jan 1–Jan 7)
SEC has received all the necessary documents from companies and announced that there are no further questions. This indicates that the submission process is complete, and now we await the SEC’s vote, which is expected to take place this week.
Matrixport believes that the SEC will reject all BTC Spot ETF funds in the coming days. However, they anticipate approval of the deadline applications in the second quarter. Bitcoin ETF Prediction news has had an impact on the price of BTC, which has experienced a significant drop recently.
Michael Saylor, the well-known Bitcoin advocate, has decided to sell 315,000 of his shares (equivalent to USD 216 million) to buy more Bitcoin. This move highlights his continued faith in the future potential of cryptocurrency.
In recent news from Fox Business, it has been reported that the SEC has held discussions with officials from the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and the Chicago Options Exchange. The focus of these meetings was to discuss the much-anticipated Bitcoin Spot ETF.
Solana has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing Ethereum in terms of the highest volume of stablecoin transfers in the past week. This development showcases Solana’s growing prominence and adoption in the crypto space.
Etherscan, a leading blockchain explorer, has acquired Solscan Block Explorer. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing Etherscan’s capabilities and providing a comprehensive blockchain exploration experience.
Grayscale, a prominent digital asset management company, is actively hiring ETF specialists. This suggests their intentions to further explore and potentially expand their offerings in the ETF market.
Unfortunately, Orbit Bridge, an inter-chain bridge protocol, suffered an estimated $81.5 million in damage due to a security breach. Additionally, Radiant Capital lending, a major arbitrum system, was hacked using flash loan methods, resulting in a loss of 1900 ETH.
China has recently tightened its regulation on cryptocurrencies, particularly focusing on the storage of crypto through cold wallets. This move indicates the Chinese government’s commitment to managing and overseeing the crypto market within its jurisdiction.
According to CoinDesk, Goldman Sachs investment bank is in discussions with BlackRock and Grayscale to potentially become an intermediary company for them. This development could have significant implications for the institutional adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies.
Readmore: Bitcoin Spot ETF Explained: All Things You Need To Know!
Macroeconomics (Dec 18 – Dec 24)
The recently released December meeting minutes of the FED shed light on the expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024. While FED officials anticipate three rate cuts, it remains uncertain when these cuts will occur. Here are some key takeaways from the meeting:
- The FED is expected to implement three rate cuts in 2024, each a quarter percentage point reduction.
- The timing of these rate cuts is still uncertain and dependent on economic developments.
- Interest rates are currently at or near the peak of the current cycle, subject to economic fluctuations.
- There has been progress in reducing inflation, indicating a positive trend.
- The dot plot chart reveals expectations of rate cuts over the next three years, projecting rates to decrease to around 2%.
- Most FED members’ forecasts indicate lower rates by the end of 2024. However, it is essential to note that rates could remain high if inflation does not cooperate.
- The FED emphasizes caution and reliance on economic data in making future decisions.
In addition to the meeting minutes, FED Chairman Thomas Barkin, speaking from the Richmond region, expressed confidence in the economy’s trajectory towards a soft landing. However, he also highlighted the possibility of raising interest rates if circumstances deviate from the planned path.
The US economy appears to be doing well, according to the most recent Non-Farm Payroll Report. With 216k additional employment created as opposed to the predicted 168k, job creation exceeded expectations.
The average hourly wage increased by 0.4%, above expectations, while the unemployment rate is currently 3.7%, which is lower than expected. These signs point to a strong labor market and possible expansion of the economy.
Moving on to this week’s big events, details about the much-awaited Bitcoin Spot ETF will be released from Monday through Wednesday, which could affect the cryptocurrency market.
John Williams, the president of the New York Federal Reserve, will discuss monetary policy in a lecture on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks inflation, is released on Thursday, while the Producer Price Index (PPI), which provides broader economic insights, is released on Friday.
Readmore: Bitcoin Spot ETF vs Futures ETF: Differences To Make The Right Investment Choice
Prediction Market Crypto (Dec 18 – Dec 24)
Last week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from $45.8k to $40.8k, a decrease of $5k, before rebounding. This was mainly attributed to unverified news from Matrixport regarding the rejection of Bitcoin ETF, which had a substantial impact on the market.
As a result, the upcoming date of January 10th has become a crucial decision day for the ETF, with the potential to greatly influence the market. Two possible scenarios have been identified:
- Bitcoin ETF Prediction 1 – Approval: if Bitcoin ETF is approved, it is not expected to cause a significant increase in the price of BTC. However, it is anticipated that BTC will bounce back to its previous peak of $45-46k.
- Bitcoin ETF Prediction 2 – Reject: If Bitcoin ETF is not approved, BTC will likely experience a significant drop, estimated to be around $36k or even lower.
In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) has also been making notable progress. The upgrade of Dencun in the first half of 2024 is anticipated to create additional growth momentum for ETH.
This upgrade, known as the Shanghai upgrade (Shapella), which took place on April 13, 2023, has already marked a major milestone for the Ethereum network. Both ETH and the LSD network have witnessed significant growth as a result.
Furthermore, the Inscription trend has gained traction recently, attracting users and drawing attention from bookmakers. The People’s Alliance on Linea, in particular, has generated a large number of FOMO users.
Here are some forecasts on the state of web3 and NFTs in 2024:
The next US presidential election, combined with the market bull run, will bring crypto into the public focus alongside political debates. This will boost interest in searching for crypto/NFT-related content, with NFTs associated with former presidents, like the NFT Trump card, becoming highly sought after.
Addition, NFTs based on Bitcoin will surprise people, with a significant project emerging, similar to the impact of Cryptopunks. The focus on Bitcoin’s upcoming Halving event will further fuel attention towards Bitcoin-based NFTs.
New Layer 1 (L1) blockchain platforms will surprise everyone with significant growth. Non-EVM L1s will dominate in 2024, driven by investors’ profits from the recent Solana pump, while Ethereum (ETH) will maintain considerable strength.
Solana’s ecosystem will continue to mature, with projects from Solana entering the top 5 rankings in 2024. Solana NFTs, similar to the success of Pudgy Penguins, will stand out.
Crypto games will expand beyond expectations, with the first signs of web3 success on mobile platforms. While widespread acceptance may not be immediate, some indie games will attract attention across the industry. By the end of 2024, skepticism about crypto games will significantly decrease, and they will become an accepted segment of the gaming industry.
Platforms like Roblox will gradually embrace web3 technology, or the Fortnite community will experiment with it. However, mainstream adoption and maturity are not expected until 2025, when GTA6 becomes the main trend.
The convergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and blockchain will revolutionize financial services and cybersecurity. AI will play a crucial role in ensuring blockchain security, supporting market analysis, and enabling automated transactions.
Real-world assets (RWA), starting with real estate and commodities, will drive the blockchain economy. In 2024, NFTs will increasingly develop into valuable tools with practical applications.
SocialFi, a combination of social media and decentralized finance, will make a comeback as a major trend. One of these tokens will make a group of people wealthy. Additionally, Decentralized Identity (DID) solutions will revolutionize privacy rights on the blockchain.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
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