Spot Solana ETF Approval Is Betting on the 2024 Election Outcome

Key Points:

• VanEck and 21Shares are leading the race to launch a spot Solana ETF with bets on changes in US political leadership.
• Former President Trump will likely reshape the SEC’s stance on crypto products with new leadership.
• Despite the challenges, there is optimism about a favorable regulatory environment under a potential future administration.

The race for the first US spot Solana ETF approval has intensified, driven by institutional bets and political calculations ahead of the upcoming election. According to CoinDesk, asset manager VanEck has taken the lead, filing with the SEC to launch a spot Solana ETF, closely followed by 21Shares.

Race for Spot Solana ETF Approval Intensifies Amidst Political

Analysts view VanEck’s move as a strategic gamble linked to the November election. James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that under the current SEC administration, which historically scrutinizes crypto ETFs without federally regulated futures markets, a spot Solana ETF might face denial. However, Seyffart speculates that a potential shift in the White House and SEC leadership towards crypto-friendly policies could alter this outlook.

According to CoinDesk, under Biden, the SEC has been reluctant to approve crypto-related products, often taking years for those that are approved. A Trump administration would likely replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler and could change the agency’s priorities significantly.

While only Bitcoin ETFs have received US approval so far and Ethereum ETFs are still pending full authorization, Solana, as one of the leading cryptocurrencies, appears a logical progression. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and others argue that a change in US leadership may be necessary for serious consideration of a spot Solana ETF.

Challenges and Speculations Surround Potential Approval of Solana ETFs

The SEC’s classification of SOL as a security in recent actions against major exchanges adds another layer of complexity. This designation, coupled with the absence of a well-established regulated derivatives market like those for Bitcoin and Ethereum, poses challenges for spot Solana ETF approvals.

Despite growing interest from ETF issuers, including VanEck, analysts caution that Solana ETFs may struggle to meet SEC standards. The lack of a futures market for Solana and previous SEC statements regarding SOL’s security status are significant hurdles.

Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, remains optimistic, highlighting Solana’s decentralized network and market demand akin to Ethereum. He believes now is the opportune moment for SOL ETF approval, amidst speculation of an impending Ethereum ETF launch before the US Independence Day holiday on July 4. Balchunas again said that an approval would come as soon as the holiday week.