Spot Solana ETF Approval Is a Bet on the 2024 Election, VanEck Says

Key Points:

• VanEck and 21Shares seek a spot Solana ETF approval in the U.S. with the 2024 election and SEC leadership.
• The absence of a Solana futures market on CME complicates ETF approval, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Crypto voters and evolving Democratic support for pro-crypto laws could sway regulatory decisions on the Solana ETF.

VanEck recently submitted an application to launch a spot Solana ETF in the United States, quickly followed by 21Shares.

VanEck and 21Shares Pursue Spot Solana ETF Approval Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, emphasized in a Bloomberg interview that the spot Solana ETF approval odds depend significantly on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and whether Gary Gensler remains the SEC Chair. Sigel highlighted that a Democrat victory would likely keep Gensler in position, diminishing approval chances, while a Trump win might improve them, as he could appoint a new SEC chair.

VanEck’s application deadline is set for March 2025, extending beyond the November election. Analysts have noted that the absence of a futures market on CME for Solana poses another challenge, as seen in the approval processes for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Grayscale, in its case against the SEC, argued that the surveillance sharing agreements effective for CME Bitcoin futures should apply to spot ETFs, critiquing the SEC’s inconsistent standards.

Political Factors and Crypto Voter Influence in 2024 Election

The ongoing debates and the shifting political dynamics indicate a pivotal period for the potential spot Solana ETF approval in the U.S., with the election outcome playing a crucial role in the decision-making process.

Sigel also pointed out the growing influence of crypto voters in shaping the regulatory landscape, with multiple Democrats now supporting pro-crypto legislation.

He acknowledged an evolving regulatory environment and remarked on the smooth operation of Ethereum applications, expressing rare agreement with Gensler. Sigel suggested that Ethereum’s status as a commodity, if confirmed, would likely extend to Solana, though he remains critical of the current regulatory stance towards Solana.