The Kobeissi Letter Highlights U.S. Recession Indicators

2 mins mins

Key Points:

The Kobeissi Letter signals a U.S. recession using economic data.
LEI/CEI ratio at 0.85, lowest since 2008.
Crypto markets may react to interest rate expectations.

The Kobeissi Letter reports the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) to Coincident Economic Index (CEI) ratio has fallen to 0.85, the lowest since 2008, signaling potential recession.

This decline could signal elevated recession risks, impacting digital assets as expectations grow for Federal Reserve rate cuts supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

Economic Indicators Hit 15-Year Low, Recession Looms

The Kobeissi Letter reported that the U.S. Conference Board’s LEI and CEI data presented a falling ratio of 0.85, the lowest in 15 years. The Kobeissi Letter emphasized historically similar declines coinciding with recessions. The Conference Board supports this view, reflecting economic weakening.

Interest rate impacts look likely, with Polymarket showing high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming December meeting. A rate cut might positively affect Bitcoin and similar macro-beta assets, encouraging growth narratives in layer-1 and layer-2 technologies.

“The Leading Economic Index continues to signal weaker economic conditions ahead and the trajectory is consistent with softer growth and elevated recession risks.” – Conference Board, Economic Research Organization, The Conference Board Latest LEI press release

Bitcoin Faces Market Fluctuations Amid Rate Cut Expectations

Did you know? The last time U.S. leading indicators showed similar declines was 2008, preceding Bitcoin’s launch as a response to monetary policy challenges.

Bitcoin’s price stands at $89,547.75 with a market cap of $1.79 trillion, marking a 1.98% drop in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Market dominance is at 58.69%, with a trading volume of $60.61 billion. Recent figures show a 27.91% fall over 60 days.

bitcoin-daily-chart-4781 — Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 09:31 UTC on December 6, 2025. *Source: CoinMarketCap*

The Coincu research team indicates potential financial outcomes might include increased institutional adoption of crypto as economic hedges. Regulatory responses could focus on financial stability, affecting crypto exposure in finance. Technological advances might push adoption narratives, boosting markets amid easing signals.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.