S&P 500 Historically Favored for December Rises

2 mins mins

Key Points:

Analyzed historical S&P 500 market data revealing 75% probability of year-end rises.
Possible market impact on cryptocurrency narratives.
Providing a view on potential global market reactions.

Traders speculated on December’s ‘Santa Rally’ with the S&P 500 rising 0.8% last Thursday, following a four-day decline, according to historical trends from Castle Securities.

The potential continuation of this trend holds significance for market sentiment, indicating possible year-end gains, which could influence broader financial markets including cryptocurrencies.

S&P 500’s December Trends: Potential for a Santa Rally

BlockBeats News highlighted market speculations on a possible “Santa Rally” for the S&P 500 index. Historically, data from Castle Securities indicates a 75% probability of an increase in the last two weeks of December, accompanied by a 1.3% average gain since 1928. According to NASDAQ, potential influences on the stock market are considered with this historical tendency.

Although this seasonality is largely relevant to traditional equities, it can potentially influence cryptocurrency markets indirectly. Traders observe how broader market trends might affect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices, especially during high liquidity periods.

Market commentators are observing whether this trend spills into the crypto sphere. With risk sentiment heightened, both S&P and crypto enthusiasts are watching for any potential alignment in year-end market performances. As Arthur Hayes, Former CEO, BitMEX, states:

The dynamics of the traditional markets can sometimes spill over into crypto, especially around holiday seasonality.

Volatility Ahead: Crypto and Equity Markets in December

Did you know? Historical data shows that equity and crypto markets often experience heightened volatility in December, with equities sometimes exhibiting a “Santa Rally” effect.

As of December 19, 2025, Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price is $88,229.15, with a market cap of $1.76 trillion. It holds a market dominance of 59.32%. Recent data from CoinMarketCap indicates a 24-hour trading volume of $59.10 billion, and a 24-hour price increase of 1.27%, though BTC remains down 23.86% over 90 days.

bitcoin-daily-chart-5126 — Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 11:43 UTC on December 19, 2025. *Source: CoinMarketCap*

According to analysts from the Coincu research team, the potential rally in the S&P 500 could align with a recovery in BTC and ETH prices, if investor sentiment sees a positive shift. However, macroeconomic factors remain crucial in determining any sustainable recovery. The Coincu research highlights these potential correlations between market movements.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.