March FOMC: probability of no rate change is 80.4%
Market-implied pricing points to high odds of a March hold, with this snapshot at 80.4%. Prediction‑market and futures‑implied gauges both cluster near the low‑80% area. Probabilities remain fluid into meeting week.
The figure reflects how traders discount inflation, jobs, and growth risks rather than an official federal reserve forecast. Differences across platforms reflect methodology and intraday liquidity.
Why it matters: mortgages, Treasury yields, dollar, risk assets
Mortgage costs are directly sensitive to rate expectations because MBS and treasury yields transmit policy into housing finance. As reported by Forbes Advisor: “Mortgage rates spent much of 2025 parked in the upper-6% range, held in place by persistent inflation pressures and a cautious Federal Reserve.”
A March hold would tend to anchor the front end of the curve, while the long end responds to incoming data. That mix can keep financial conditions tight even without new hikes.
the u.S. dollar and risk assets often react to shifts in cut odds. As reported by Barron’s, softer retail sales recently weakened the dollar as easing expectations rose.
Immediate drivers shifting March FOMC odds
Labor dynamics are central to March. As reported by Investing.com, the January FOMC discussion framed the labor market as stabilizing, a tone that dampens the case for near‑term easing absent softer inflation.
Consumer data have become a swing factor. Recent weak retail figures boosted easing expectations, a pattern that can reprice front‑end futures and FX in tandem.
Strategists’ baselines also condition odds. As reported by Business Insider, JPMorgan Chase now projects no rate cuts in 2026, reinforcing the case that a March hold remains the default barring sharp disinflation.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is about $68,862 with bearish sentiment and 10.62% volatility, offering a neutral snapshot of risk appetite alongside rate‑path repricing.
How CME FedWatch compares with Polymarket
Method differences behind market-implied probabilities
Futures‑based tools infer probabilities from pricing in short‑term interest‑rate contracts, translating term structures into discrete outcomes. Prediction markets aggregate binary contract trading into event odds. These inputs can diverge on liquidity, fees, and participant mix.
Snapshot: Polymarket 83% hold; CME FedWatch 17% cut odds
In this snapshot, prediction‑market pricing implies roughly an 83% chance of a March hold, while a futures‑based probability model indicates about 17% odds of a 25 bp cut. Together, these align with an ~80% hold regime.
FAQ about CME FedWatch
How do CME FedWatch odds compare to Polymarket for the March FOMC decision?
Prediction‑market odds sit near the low‑80s for a hold; a major futures‑based gauge shows cut odds in the high‑teens. The readings broadly agree.
Which upcoming data releases could shift the odds before the March meeting?
Jobs, retail‑sales, and inflation updates are primary swing factors, given recent emphasis on labor stabilization and markets’ sensitivity to consumer strength.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
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